Bitcoin - Crypto investing and trading discussion

Bitcoin Weakness Tracking Seasonality. September Bullseye Buy Again?



After many years as a crypto and Bitcoin skeptic I teamed up last year with Adrian Zduńczyk, CMT @crypto_birb to study Bitcoin seasonal patterns and trends. Our “Seasonality of Bitcoin” white paper came out September 26, the day of the average annual seasonal low. With $BTC continuing to track its seasonal pattern I would not be surprised if the original cryptocurrency settled into another textbook September seasonal low buy point this year as well

Last year BTC’s September low was a bullseye buy. Bitcoin nearly tripled from the September low of about 25,000 to the high this March just shy of 74,000. Take a look at your favorite technical chart and you can see how BTC has struggled to break above this 70K resistance level, which is only slightly higher than the old November 2021 highs.

So don’t be alarmed by recent weakness and volatility. This is just the usual historical seasonality when stocks and BTC drift sideways, chop, flop and suffer normal pullbacks until they tend to find support in late-summer or early-autumn.

 

Not All Crypto is Created Equal
Fri, Oct 25, 2024

In the crypto space, Bitcoin and Ethereum are considered two of the most credible with market caps of $1.3 trillion and $300 billion, respectively. While there is a tendency for many investors/speculators to lump the two together as highly correlated to each other, that has been far from the case over the last several months. Until mid-summer, Bitcoin and Ethereum followed similar paths, but since then, the paths of the two have diverged. The chart below shows the YTD performance of both cryptos and as recently as July 15th, both were up an identical 50% YTD. Since then, though, Ethereum has given up most of its YTD gains while Bitcoin has added modestly to its rally.



Given the divergence between the two, the ratio of bitcoin to Ethereum has widened to just under 27 which is a level not seen in more than three years. As shown in the chart below, this is still half of where the ratio was in early 2021 (it was even higher than that in 2000), but in the short term, Bitcoin has become the "Mag 1" of the crypto space.

 

Bitcoin Cup and Handle Breakout
Wed, Nov 6, 2024

Last week we published a Chart of the Day for subscribers highlighting the multi-year cup and handle pattern that bitcoin had formed and its similarities with gold's (GLD) technicals.

On the back of President Trump's victory last night, bitcoin's price has now spiked more than $6,000 to trade at new all-time highs above $75,000. The post-election move looks like a clear breakout above all prior resistance levels. From a technical perspective, this breakout essentially marks the end of the cup and handle and the beginning of the post-cup and handle leg higher. Going forward, technicians will be looking for bitcoin's prior all-time highs in the low $70,000s to now act as support.

 

Bitcoin Approaches $100K
Thu, Nov 21, 2024

Bitcoin's relentless rally has pressed on. In the past 24 hours, the world's largest crypto has surpassed the $98,000 mark for the first time ever as it closes in on the $100,000 milestone. As shown below, after trending lower from the end of the first quarter through late summer, Bitcoin hit a low on September 6 and finally broke out of that downtrend by mid-October with a parabolic move upwards after the election. Currently, the crypto is up over 80% from that September low.



Bitcoin has seen a lot of big green candles in the past few weeks. To gauge how it has traded during the day, below we show an intraday composite of Bitcoin's action since Election Day a little over two weeks ago. This is essentially the average 24-hour path that Bitcoin has taken since Election Day. We have shaded in gray the period from 9:30 AM ET to 4 PM ET, which represents regular trading hours for US equity markets. As you can see, Bitcoin has been surging when the US stock market has been open outside of a slight sell-off from 2-4 PM ET. Is this because of all the new Bitcoin ETF buying that has been happening lately?



The surge in Bitcoin prices has also come at a time when seasonality hasn't exactly been at its best. In the second chart below, we show the average path of Bitcoin throughout the year for all years since 2015, over the past five years, and this year. As shown, this year in March and the second half of May, Bitcoin bucked seasonal trends as it saw much stronger runs versus a historical seasonal pattern in which prices have tended to fall. That parallels with this month in which prices have absolutely soared, whereas in the past, Bitcoin has tended to move lower in November before rebounding through the holidays. In fact, as the first days of December approach, forward one month and three month seasonality is reaching some of its strongest readings of the year. As shown in the dials below, forward one month historical median seasonal returns rank in the 85th percentile of all days of the year and forward three month returns are even better, just shy of the top decile of readings. Of course, seasonality is no guarantee of future price movements, and the recent rally already leaves Bitcoin very overbought.