Stock Market Today: December 2nd - 6th, 2024

Welcome to the trading week of December 2nd!

Dow jumps nearly 200 points to record in short session, S&P 500 posts best month of 2024: Live updates



The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 rose to new heights on Friday amid a shortened trading day that capped a strong month for equities.

The S&P 500 added 0.56% to 6,032.38, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.83% to 19,218.17.The Dow climbed 188.59 points, or 0.42%, to end at 44,910.65. Both the Dow and S&P 500 notched new intraday and closing highs.

Some of the upward momentum came from chip stocks, which popped after Bloomberg reported that the Biden administration was considering additional barriers on the sale of semiconductor equipment to China that weren’t as strong as previously expected. Lam Research rallied more than 3% while Nvidia jumped more than 2%. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) added 1.3%.

A fairly broad advance propelled the S&P 500 into uncharted territory. About three out of every five S&P 500 members finished the session in the green.

Those moves came as traders looked to the end of a winning week and month. November trading largely centered on the postelection rally seen on the back of President-elect Donald Trump’s victory.

The Dow added 1.4% this week, bringing its gain for November to 7.5%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each advanced 1.1% on the week, ending 2024′s penultimate month higher by more than 5% and 6%, respectively. With those gains, the Dow and S&P 500 notched their best months of 2024.

The small-cap-focused Russell 2000 outperformed in November as investors saw the group benefiting from Trump’s potential tax cuts. The Russell 2000 surged 10.8% this month, helped by a gain of 1.2% this week.

“The prevailing takeaway from November, to me, is that what was true before the election has remained true after the election,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management. “As we head into December, it’s really hard to fade this bull market here, with all the things going right, the election in the rearview and a seasonal tailwind that still has some room to run.”

Stocks have also been lifted late this year by expectations that interest rates remain on a downward course, which raises the present value of future earnings and should boost the economy. Fed funds futures are now pricing in around a 66% likelihood that the central bank will lower rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting next month, according to CMEGroup’s FedWatch tool.

The stock market was dark Thursday and closed at 1 p.m. ET on Friday in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday. Friday trading volume on both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq was less than two thirds the past 30 days’ daily average.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:
(N/A.)

 

First Trading Day of December Trending Bearish

In the now available, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2025, on page 90, it is shown that the first trading days of every month since September 1997 for DJIA have produced just over 35% of the total gain. Greatest gains were produced by the first day of February followed by March and July. However December’s first trading day has not been as productive for DJIA or S&P 500. In the following table, the performance of the first trading day of December over the last 23 years is presented.

Aside from disastrous 2008, first trading day of December losses have been relatively mild for DJIA. The second worst loss, 1.34%, was 2021. Although the table has numerous years with 1% or greater gains, consistency is lacking. Since 2006, December’s first trading day has been trending weaker, down ten of the last eighteen for NASDAQ, down eleven of the last eighteen for DJIA, and twelve of eighteen for S&P 500.

On the heels of above average gains this November, it would not be surprising to see the market pause in early December to consolidate gains.

More Gains Likely in December, the Third Best Month of Year

December is the number three Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.6% and 1.5% respectively. It’s also the third-best NASDAQ (since 1971) month. It is the second-best month for Russell 2000 (since 1979). The market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of 2018 does not seem highly likely this year. In 2018, DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. When December is down it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks have consolidated in the first half of the month.

In the last eighteen election years, December’s ranking changes modestly to #2 for DJIA and S&P 500, NASDAQ’s slips to fifth place. Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, have had a field day in election-year Decembers. Since 1980, Russell 2000 has lost ground just once in eleven election-year Decembers. The average small cap gain in all eleven years is a solid 3.5%. The Russell 2000’s single loss was in 1980 when the Prime Rate was 21.5%.


Five Things To Know About December


“To appreciate the beauty of a snowflake it is necessary to stand out in the cold.” Aristotle

The final month of 2024 is nearly here and in today’s blog I wanted to take a look at why we think the chance of another strong month to end this record-breaking year is likely. Here are five things to know about December.

First, you should know about the Santa Claus Rally (SCR). The SCR is named for the period that includes the last five days of December (usually starting after Christmas) and the first two trading days of the new year. You will hear all about the SCR over the coming weeks. Just know it isn’t about the full month — it is about the late year/early year rally see most years. We will discuss the Santa Claus Rally more next month.

Second, December is the S&P 500’s second-best month of the year in an election year, with only November better. Given stocks have soared so far in November, this one is playing out again so far. Also note, December is higher 83.3% of the time, making it the most likely month in an election year to be higher.



Third, since 1950, December is the third best month on average (only April and November are better). In the past decade it is only the 10th best month, thanks in part to a 6% drop in 2022 and a 9% crash in 2018.



Fourth, no month is more likely to be higher overall, with the S&P 500 up in December nearly 75% of the time. The next closest is April up more than 71% of the time.



What about if stocks are up a lot going into the final month? History says a chase into year-end is quite possible. We found the past 10 times the S&P 500 was up at least 20% going into December, that final month gained nine times and was up a solid 2.4% on average.



Thanks for reading and here’s to a relaxing Thanksgiving holiday.

When Stocks Are Up Big YTD Before Thanksgiving

S&P 500 is having another banner year up an impressive 25.5% year-to-date through yesterday’s close on pace for more gains today. When stocks logged double-digit gains YTD on the on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, in general market gains continued into yearend.

2024 is set to exceed my 2024 Annual Forecast best case scenario of 15-25% made 11 months ago. I expect more new all-time highs before yearend. I would not be surprised if the market outperformed the average December and ended up tacking on another 4-5% or more, pushing the index over 6200 for the year or upwards of a 30% gain for 2024.

There are a few blemishes in the 35 previous years, but most importantly, there are no major selloffs on this list. The big December decline of -9.2% in 2018 came after the S&P 500 was down -1.2% at this point in the year. After double-digit YTD gains the S&P 500 was up 70% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to yearend for an average gain of 2.4%.

Also of note is that the Santa Claus Rally suffered only five losses in these years. But these four down SCRs in 1955, 1968, 1999, 2014 and 2023 were followed by flat years in 1956 and 2015, down years in 1969 and 2000, but solid gains in 2024. As Yale’s famous line states (2024 Almanac page 116 and 2025 Almanac page 118): “If Santa Claus Should Fail To Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall.”


Thankful Investors -- Last 20 Years
Tue, Nov 26, 2024

It's a holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week, so over the next few days, we plan on writing about some of the stocks that investors can be most thankful for. Yesterday we looked at the best performing stocks over the last five years, and in this post, we're highlighting the 30 best-performing stocks in the S&P 1500 on a total return basis over the last twenty years. In the table below we rank them from 1st to 30th and show how much a $1,000 investment in each stock twenty years ago (on 11/25/04) would be worth today. Below the table, we provide a one-sentence blurb generated by AI that describes what each company does.

AI chip maker NVIDIA (NVDA) has easily been the best-performing stock over the last twenty years, and it has made a large number of investors extremely wealthy. Incredibly, a $1,000 investment in NVDA twenty years ago would have almost turned you into a millionaire today! Unbelievably, $1,000 in NVDA back on 11/25/04 would be worth roughly $944k today. (By the same math, $10k would be worth $9.44 million, while $100k would be worth $94.4 million.)

Twenty-year returns for streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) haven't been too shabby either. $1,000 in NFLX twenty years ago would be worth more than $550k today. Rounding out the top five are Texas Pacific Land (TPL), Apple (AAPL), and Booking Holdings (BKNG).

In total, eight stocks have turned $1,000 into more than $100k over the last twenty years. This includes the aforementioned NVDA, NFLX, TPL, AAPL, and BKNG along with Monster Beverage (MNST), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), and Amazon.com (AMZN).

Other notables on the list include Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Salesforce (CRM), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), and United Rentals (URI).

For anyone out there who has been riding any of these big winners for the last twenty years, bravo to you, and Happy Thanksgiving!



For a quick description of each company listed above, we asked AI to give us its best one-sentence blurb:

• NVIDIA (NVDA): A leader in graphics processing units (GPUs) for gaming, artificial intelligence, and data centers, driving innovation in computing and visual technologies.
  
• Netflix (NFLX): A global streaming service offering a vast library of movies, TV shows, and original content, accessible on-demand across various devices.
  
• Texas Pacific Land (TPL): Manages oil and gas royalties, land leases, and water services for energy production in Texas.
  
• Apple (AAPL): Designs and sells consumer electronics like the iPhone, Mac, and iPad, along with software and services like the App Store and iCloud.
  
• Booking Holdings (BKNG): Operates online travel brands like Booking.com, Priceline, and Agoda, providing services for hotel reservations, car rentals, and flights.
  
• Monster Beverage (MNST): Produces energy drinks, including the flagship Monster Energy brand, targeting consumers looking for enhanced energy and focus.
  
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): Manufactures robotic-assisted surgical systems, including the da Vinci system, enhancing precision and minimally invasive procedures.
  
• Amazon.com (AMZN): A global e-commerce leader offering retail, cloud computing, and digital streaming services, alongside innovations like Amazon Web Services (AWS).
  
• XPO (XPO): Provides freight transportation and logistics services, specializing in less-than-truckload (LTL) and last-mile delivery solutions.
  
• UFP Technologies (UFPT): Designs and manufactures custom packaging, components, and engineered products for medical, automotive, and industrial applications.
  
• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN): Develops biopharmaceuticals to treat serious medical conditions, including eye diseases, cancer, and autoimmune disorders.
  
• Comfort Systems USA (FIX): Provides mechanical systems installation and services, specializing in HVAC and building systems for commercial clients.
  
• RadNet (RDNT): Operates outpatient diagnostic imaging centers offering MRI, CT scans, and other radiology services across the U.S.
  
• NeoGenomics (NEO): A cancer diagnostics company providing genetic and molecular testing for oncologists, pathologists, and researchers.
  
• Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK): Markets lifestyle footwear and apparel under brands like UGG, Teva, and HOKA ONE ONE, known for comfort and performance.
  
• AAON (AAON): Manufactures heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment, focusing on energy efficiency and innovative designs.
  
• Salesforce (CRM): A cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) platform that enables businesses to manage sales, service, and marketing operations.
  
• Tyler Technologies (TYL): Provides software and technology services for local governments, focusing on public safety, tax, and financial management.
  
• Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL): A leading less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier offering efficient freight transportation across North America.
  
• Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO): Best known for its FICO credit scoring system, it provides analytics and decision-making software for risk management.
  
• Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR): Designs power management solutions for electronics in industrial, automotive, and consumer markets.
  
• Repligen (RGEN): Develops bioprocessing technologies and materials used in the production of biologic drugs and gene therapies.
  
• O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY): A retailer and distributor of automotive parts, tools, and equipment, serving professional and DIY customers.
  
• Domino's Pizza (DPZ): A global leader in pizza delivery and carryout services, leveraging technology for fast and convenient ordering.
  
• EMCOR Group (EME): Provides construction and facilities services, specializing in mechanical and electrical systems installation and maintenance.
  
• Lennox International (LII): Produces HVAC and refrigeration equipment for residential and commercial applications.
  
• United Rentals (URI): The largest equipment rental company in the world, offering construction, industrial, and specialty equipment.
  
• Manhattan Associates (MANH): Provides supply chain and omnichannel commerce solutions to help retailers and wholesalers optimize operations.
  
• Quanta Services (PWR): Delivers infrastructure services for energy and communications, including electric power and pipeline construction.
  
• Copart (CPRT): An online vehicle auction company specializing in salvaged and used cars, serving insurance companies, dealerships, and buyers worldwide.

As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Six and Six
Tue, Nov 26, 2024

Both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 came into the day riding 6-day winning streaks, and based on where both indices are trading at mid-day, the S&P 500 looks poised to extend that streak while the streak looks like it’s going to end for small caps. The current six-day streak for the two indices is the first time that both indices have simultaneously been up six days in a row since February 2021. Since 2000, there have only been 16 other streaks, so while they aren’t particularly rare, they aren’t too common either.

In the charts below of the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000, the red dots show each time the two indices were up six days in a row at the same time. Looking at the various occurrences, there were several from 2013 to 2014 and then from late 2016 through 2017, and in most cases, they occurred within longer-term uptrends. The only notable exception was in June 2007.

What Happens After Back-To-Back 20% Gains?


“Don’t look for it, Taylor. You may not like what you find.” -Dr. Zaius to Taylor (Charleton Heston) at end of Planet of the Apes

Many bears are back at it, claiming that because stocks are looking at back-to-back 20% gains then 2025 must be doomed. Unfortunately, all we have to do is look at the data to see they once again could be on the wrong end of this amazing bull market.

Just as Dr. Zaius tried to warn Taylor in The Planet of the Apes that he may not like what he finds, the bears might be disappointed to find that strong returns after back-to-back 20% years is perfectly normal.

Using total returns (since 1950) we found eight other times stocks gained 20% two years in a row and the next year was higher six times and up a solid 12.3% on average. Now what really stood out to me about the data below is the mid- to late-1990s saw an incredible record five years in a row of 20% or more gains. We didn’t have social media back then, but I could only imagine how mad that would have made the bears.



2024 of course isn’t over yet, but it is pretty incredible that as strong as last year was, this year is up more right now. For more of our overall views, as we laid out in Why We Aren’t Permabulls, we think continued gains in 2025 are likely, as the overall economy remains pretty solid, which we discussed in The Economic Outlook Looks Pretty Good – Part 1 and Part 2.

The bottom line is up 20% two years in a row actually suggests the potential for better than average returns in 2025, something we are on record is expecting next year. I will keep this one fairly quick, as this week we are putting the final touches on our Outlook 2025, which we will release in January.

We wish everyone out there a happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy some downtime with family and friends! Thanks for reading.

Thankful Investors -- Last 5 Years
Mon, Nov 25, 2024

It's a holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week, so over the next few days we plan on writing about some of the stocks that investors can be most thankful for. In this post we're highlighting the 25 best performing stocks in the S&P 1500 on a total return basis over the last five years. In the table below we rank them from 1st to 25th and show how much a $1,000 investment in each stock five years ago (on 11/25/19) would be worth today. Below the table we provide a one sentence blurb generated by AI that describes what each company does.

At the top of the list above even NVIDIA (NVDA) is Alpha Metallurgical (AMR), which mines and produces coal for steel production and power generation! A $1,000 investment in AMR five years ago would be worth more than $34,000 today!

NVDA ranks second, turning $1,000 five years ago into more than $25,000 today, followed by energy drink maker Celsius (CELH), MARA Holdings (MARA), and GameStop (GME). Other notables on the list of big winners over the last five years include Tesla (TSLA) at #7, Super Micro (SMCI) at #8, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) at #12, and Axon Enterprise (AXON) at #14. You'll also probably recognize companies like Arista Networks (ANET), elf Beauty (ELF), Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), Vistra (VST), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), and Eli Lilly (LLY).



For a quick description of each company listed above, we asked AI to give us its best one-sentence blurb:

• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): A global specialty retailer focused on casual apparel and accessories for young adults and kids, known for its trendy fashion and lifestyle branding.
  
• Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR): A leading producer of metallurgical coal, used primarily in steel production, with operations focused on mining and processing high-quality coal.
  
• Antero Resources (AR): An independent energy company specializing in the exploration and production of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil in the Appalachian Basin.
  
• Arista Networks (ANET): Provides cloud networking solutions, including switches, routers, and software, for data centers and enterprise networking environments.
  
• Axon Enterprise (AXON): Known for its Taser devices, body-worn cameras, and cloud-based evidence management software, serving public safety and law enforcement agencies.
  
• Builders FirstSource (BLDR): Supplies building materials, manufactured components, and construction services to professional homebuilders and remodelers in the U.S.
  
• Celsius Holdings (CELH): A beverage company offering fitness-oriented energy drinks and health-focused functional beverages for active consumers.
  
• Comfort Systems USA (FIX): Provides mechanical services such as heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), and electrical contracting to commercial and industrial customers.
  
• CONSOL Energy (CEIX): A coal and energy company producing high-quality bituminous coal for electricity generation and industrial applications.
  
• Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK): Designs and markets footwear and accessories under brands like UGG, Teva, and HOKA ONE ONE, targeting performance and lifestyle consumers.
  
• e.l.f. Beauty (ELF): A cosmetics company specializing in affordable, high-quality makeup and skincare products available globally.
  
• Eli Lilly (LLY): A leading pharmaceutical company developing innovative medicines in areas such as diabetes, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience.
  
• GameStop (GME): A retailer of video games, consumer electronics, and collectibles, with a focus on digital gaming and e-commerce.
  
• Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA): A digital asset technology company focused on cryptocurrency mining, particularly Bitcoin, leveraging blockchain technology.
  
• Mr. Cooper Group (COOP): A mortgage servicer and lender offering home loan solutions, refinancing, and servicing for homeowners and buyers.
  
• NVIDIA (NVDA): A technology company best known for its graphics processing units (GPUs) used in gaming, AI, data centers, and autonomous vehicles.
  
• Powell Industries (POWL): Manufactures electrical equipment and systems for the management and distribution of electricity in industrial and utility markets.
  
• Quanta Services (PWR): Provides infrastructure services to the energy and communications sectors, including construction and maintenance of electric power and telecom systems.
  
• Range Resources (RRC): An independent oil and natural gas company focused on exploration and production in the Appalachian Basin, particularly natural gas.
  
• SiTime Corporation (SITM): Designs and manufactures precision timing devices, including silicon MEMS-based oscillators, used in electronics.
  
• Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM): A grocery retailer emphasizing fresh, natural, and organic products, catering to health-conscious consumers.
  
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Develops high-performance, energy-efficient server and storage solutions for data centers, enterprise IT, and cloud computing.
  
• Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): A global leader in electric vehicles, renewable energy products, and battery technology, with a mission to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.
  
• Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL): Manages land and mineral rights in Texas, generating revenue from oil and gas royalties, leases, and easements.
  
• Vistra Corp. (VST): An energy company offering electricity generation, retail services, and renewable power solutions across the U.S. through its integrated platform.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2024-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 11.29.24-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 11.29.24-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for November 29th, 2024
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 12/1/24
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

StockBoarders! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (12/2-12/6) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (12/2) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 12.2.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

Monday 12.2.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 12.3.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 12.3.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 12.4.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 12.4.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 12.5.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 12.5.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 12.6.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 12.6.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ZS $CRM $OKTA $LULU $MRVL $CHWY $PATH $ULTA $S $FL $DOCU $DLTR $GTLB $HPE $IOT $DG $CRDO $PSTG $VEEV $AEO $BOX $FIVE $TD $CURV $BNS $SNPS $RY $CNM $ASAN $WOOF $BBW $DCI $CHPT $BASE $VSCO $CSIQ $THO $GWRE $SIG $CBRL $COO $CPB $BMO $DSGX $DOOO $CAL $SMAR $REX $PVH $HCP)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning December 2nd, 2024 <-- click there to view!

 

Top of the morning StockBoarders! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are under an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, December the 2nd, 2024!

 

Here are today's gappers up & down:

 

Here are today's economic calendar events:

 

Here are today's analyst stock upgrades & downgrades:

 

Here are this morning's pre-market earnings results:

 

Morning Lineup - 12/2/24 - The Beginning of the End
Mon, Dec 2, 2024

Global equities kicked off December positively as most Asian equity benchmarks finished the first trading day of the month with gains of between 0.5% and 1.0%. In China, the 10-year yield fell to a record low just below 2% after the country’s services PMI came in weaker than expected at 50.0 even as the Manufacturing component increased modestly to 50.3. While growth in China remained anemic, Japan’s Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory for the sixth month.

In Europe, equities have also gotten off to a positive start in December although the magnitude of the gains has been more modest with the STOXX 600 trading up just under half of a percent. Manufacturing in the region remains in contraction as the PMI index fell from 46.0 to 45.2 for its 29th straight month below 50.

US equity futures were modestly higher earlier but have now dipped slightly into negative territory as we await the December release of the ISM Manufacturing report. While it hasn’t been quite as weak as its European counterpart, the ISM index is expected to remain below 50 for the eighth month in a row and the 24th time in the last 25 months. It will be interesting to see, though, if the election results had any impact on manufacturers’ sentiment.

December 2nd may not seem like much of a day to most people, but today marks the 23rd anniversary of Enron's bankruptcy filing. At the time, Enron was the largest corporate bankruptcy in US history, but 23 years later, it only ranks as the ninth largest. At an estimated $66 billion, Enron’s bankruptcy was less than a tenth of Lehman’s (largest ever) which occurred less than seven years later, and a fifth the size of Washington Mutual which collapsed just after Lehman. The fact that Enron’s bankruptcy was so large at the time but now pales in comparison to some of the largest illustrates once again how despite the power and strength of the US economy, never underestimate the ability of companies to screw things up and ultimately screw their employees, customers, creditors, and shareholders.

Enron’s bankruptcy hit the market at a particularly vulnerable time. Just over two months earlier, the bottom had fallen out of the market following the 9/11 attacks, but the market quickly rebounded giving hope to investors that the whoosh lower when the markets re-opened in September had been a market clearing event. Enron’s bankruptcy stopped the rally in its tracks, and after treading water for a few months, the bottom fell out of the market again as accounting scandals at Tyco and WorldCom hit the market. Enron may not have been the sole cause of the post-9/11 rally losing steam, but in bear markets, there’s always something.



Turning to the present market, the Treasury market has done its best to confuse markets in the last few months. In early September, all you would hear about was how the start of the Fed easing cycle would unleash a period of lower rates and ease borrowing costs for Americans. While short-term rates declined, the Fed has little control over the long end of the curve, and the 10-year yield made its low for the year just before the September cut. From there, the yield marched steadily higher.

Then, leading up to the election, a Trump victory was considered a harbinger of higher rates as lower taxes would balloon the deficit. The verdict is still out on what a Trump Administration will mean for the deficit as he's not even in office, but once again, nearly the exact opposite occurred. Yields peaked shortly after the election and finished off November 11 basis points lower than where they started the month.



It’s not just longer-term Treasuries that have rallied, though. The snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer shows the performance of various Treasury and fixed-income-related ETFs. Not only have they all rallied over the last week, but they’re also mostly at or above their 50-day moving averages (DMAs).

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, December 2nd, 2024.