Stock Market Today: December 2nd - 6th, 2024

Here are today's economic calendar events:

 

Here are today's analyst stock upgrades & downgrades:

 

Here are this morning's pre-market earnings results:

 

Morning Lineup - 12/5/24 - Do You Believe?
Thu, Dec 5, 2024

As we type this, futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down 0.01% while Dow futures are unchanged. This comes after all three indices hit record highs yesterday. On the economic calendar, initial jobless claims came in modestly higher than expected while continuing claims fell back below 1.90 million to 1.871 million

In Asia, the Nikkei was modestly higher as expectations for a December rate hike were dialed back following comments from a BoJ official saying that he expects inflation to fall back below the 2% target in 2025 as he sees wage growth slowing down. In South Korea, President Yoon is expected to be the subject of an impeachment vote over the weekend, and Q3 GDP came in weaker than expected rising by just 0.1% compared to expectations for growth of 0.5%.

In Europe this morning, equities are trading modestly higher as the market increasingly expects the ECB to cut rates at its policy meeting next week as October Retail Sales for the region fell more than expected (-0.5% vs -0.4%).

It’s hard to believe that the election was only a month ago today, and it’s equally hard to believe the move in Bitcoin during that time. After closing just above $69,000 on Election Day, overnight the world’s largest cryptocurrency topped $100,000 for the first time, and this morning those gains have continued as it trades right around $103K. In a month, Bitcoin has rallied nearly 50%. In terms of market cap, that works out to more than $400 billion! While all three major US equity indices hit all-time highs yesterday, Bitcoin saw those gains and one-upped the equity market overnight.

We’ve shown versions of the chart below numerous times over the last few weeks, but the cup-and-handle breakout formation in Bitcoin is textbook.



While Bitcoin has been hitting record highs for the last couple of weeks now, last night’s move was notable for another reason besides crossing $100K for the first time. In yesterday’s DealBook conference, Fed Chair Powell referred to Bitcoin as “just like gold only it’s digital”. The chart below shows the historical ratio of Bitcoin to an ounce of gold. The last peak in this ratio occurred in November 2021, but with yesterday's move above $100K, the ratio between digital and physical gold also broke out to a new record high. Just like Powell, investors increasingly appear to view Bitcoin as a digital version of gold, that's a lot easier to store and move around.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Thursday, December 5th, 2024.

 

Top of the morning StockBoarders! Happy Friday to all of you and welcome to the final trading day of the week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are under an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Friday, December the 6th, 2024!

 

Here are today's gappers up & down:

 

Here are today's economic calendar events:

 

Here are today's analyst stock upgrades & downgrades:

 

Here are this morning's pre-market earnings results:

 

Morning Lineup - 12/6/24 - Jobs Day - Just Right
Fri, Dec 6, 2024

Futures saw little movement as US investors awaited the big November jobs report, in which payrolls were expected to bounce back from October’s hurricane-related weak print. The report was just released, and investors got just about what they expected. Headline jobs was slightly higher than expected (227K vs 220K), and October's print was revised modestly lower. The Unemployment Rate ticked up slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% which was a tick higher than expected, and average hourly earnings were up 4.2% y/y versus expectations for 4.1%. All in all, the report had little in the way of surprises.

Asian stocks closed out a positive week with a negative bias. Japan, India, South Korea, and Australia were all lower, but China bucked the trend with gains of over 1%. The gains there come in anticipation of next week’s Central Economic Work Conference where investors expect authorities to introduce additional measures to support growth in that ailing economy.

European equities are finishing off a positive week with additional gains this morning. The STOXX 600 is up fractionally (<0.25%) taking its gain for the week to over 2%. GDP for the region increased 0.4% which was in line with forecasts, but Industrial Production in Germany unexpectedly declined. French equities are the big winners in the region with a gain of over 1% as Macron insists that he will finish his Presidency through 2027.

As mentioned above, investors expected a rebound in the November jobs report after last month’s weaker-than-expected print. While the hurricanes in the south impacted job growth for October, last month’s report was the fourth miss relative to expectations in the last seven reports and the biggest miss (-88K) since January 2022. The market hoped for a better November report… but not too much, and that's exactly what it got. In response, market pricing for a December cut now stands at just about 90%.

Now that everyone has discovered digital gold, is the physical version on its way to becoming a paperweight? After peaking just above $2,800 per ounce at the end of October, gold prices declined as much as 9% to their lows in mid-November, but after a bounce still remain down over 5% hovering right around $2,650 per ounce.

A look at the chart shows a delicate picture. Gold broke its uptrend from the summer just after the election and then surrendered the 50-DMA just days later. From that mid-November low, it rallied back above its 50-DMA but stalled out right below its former uptrend line. These failures at a former key trendline can often signal a shift in trend, and another attempted rally after Thanksgiving has failed at the 50-DMA which is now starting to roll over. The next few days will be critical; it will either break above its short-term downtrend from the October high or below what looks like a very short-term uptrend line from the mid-November low.



As is usually the case, the move in the gold mining stocks has followed a similar path, but with wider swings. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was in an upward trending channel for about six months dating back to late May but broke below the low end of that range as well as its 50-DMA just two days after the election. GDX managed to find some support at its 200-DMA – a level it hasn’t traded below since March, but already appears to be running out of momentum and starting to roll over. Judging by the President-elect’s various real estate holdings, no one seems to love gold more than him, but his victory in November hasn’t been good for anything related to gold.

Getting back to the original question over whether Bitcoin has become a substitute for physical gold, there are certainly some aspects where it could serve as a substitute. Less than a month ago, though, gold was at record highs, so it will take more than a month of weakness and a decline of less than 10% for us to get the hammer out and start putting the nails in gold’s coffin.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Friday, December 6th, 2024.

 

Here is an early preview of next week's notable earnings releases courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Have yourself a terrific weekend ahead guys!