Stock Market Today: January 13th - 17th, 2025

Welcome to the trading week of January 13th!

Dow tumbles nearly 700 points Friday as strong jobs report casts doubt over Fed’s rate-cut path



Stocks dropped on Friday after a hot jobs report dampened Wall Street’s expectations for more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 696.75 points, or 1.63%, to 41,938.45. The S&P 500 slid 1.54% to 5,827.04, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.63% to 19,161.63. Friday’s losses pushed the major benchmarks into the red for 2025.

U.S. payrolls grew by 256,000 in December, while economists polled by Dow Jones expected to see an increase of 155,000. The unemployment rate, which was projected to remain at 4.2%, fell to 4.1% during the month. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note spiked to its highest level since late 2023 after the report.

“Good news for the economy but not for the markets, at least for now,” said Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist Scott Wren. “However, this unexpected gain relative to the consensus projection does not change our view that the labor market is likely to decelerate further in coming quarters.”

Traders give 97% odds that the Fed stands pat on rates at its meeting later in January, and they now think the central bank will hold rates where they are in the March meeting as well, based on fed funds futures trading.

Odds of a March cut fell to around 25% following the jobs data, down from a 41% probability a day earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Fed cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point in December.

Stocks took another leg lower on Friday after the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index signaled concern on the inflation front. The overall index came in at 73.2 for January, missing a Dow Jones estimate of 74. Part of that was driven by one-year inflation expectations rising to 3.3% from 2.8%. Five-year expectations also scaled to their highest level since June 2008.

Growth stocks that could be hurt the most if a spike in rates causes investors to get more conservative led the session’s losses. Chipmaker Nvidia shed 3%, while AMD and Broadcom lost 4.8% and 2.2%, respectively. Palantir was off by more than 1%.

Small cap stocks, also sensitive to borrowing rates, dropped with the Russell 2000 index losing more than 2%.

“Rates are moving a little bit too much, too fast and equity markets are selling off,” LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist said, adding that the recent move in yields foreshadows a potential pullback or correction for the S&P 500.

“But the important thing that gets lost on days like today is the message of why rates are moving higher — it’s because the economy is doing better than expected,” he said. “Ultimately, that means the potential for better earnings, less risk of a recession, and that’s really going to dictate longer term returns versus a sell-off in today’s market.”

All three of the major averages posted back-to-back weekly losses, with the S&P 500 off 1.9% and the Nasdaq Composite down 2.3%. The 30-stock Dow slid nearly 1.9% on the week.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:
(N/A.)

 

Stocks Wrestle with Rates Typical January Action So Far

Upbeat jobs data fanned inflation fears and a rate cut reality check. More people working and making money is actually a good thing. But the market continues to wrestle with rising 10-year Treasury bond yields and policy uncertainties as a new administration prepares to take over in Washington, D.C. The rise in 10-year yields is most likely the combination of firm economic growth and stubborn inflation. It has also further muddled an already murky monetary policy outlook.

Today’s kneejerk selling notwithstanding January has on average started out positive, but weakness then creeps in. Choppy trading and weakness have plagued January in recent years and post-election years. In post-presidential-election years, Januarys have been mixed. DJIA and S&P 500 slip to number #8 and average performance also dips. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have historically performed the best in post-election year Januarys ranking #4 and #5 respectively with average gains exceeding 2%.

What Happens After Stocks Gain 20%?


“How do you like them apples?” Will Hunting in Good Will Hunting

Welcome to 2025! First off, 2024 was a great year for investors, but it was one of the weakest final five days we’ve ever seen and the worst since 2005. Not to mention Santa Claus didn’t come, which you can read more about here, but I’m not too concerned about that as of now. Remember, we didn’t see Santa last year and stocks still saw huge gains.



The Bad News
The S&P 500 made 57 all-time highs last year, which was the fifth most ever and most since 70 in 2021. Here’s the catch, a lot of new highs hasn’t been a good sign of the following year and many have pointed this out as a reason to be skeptical in 2025.



Since the S&P 500 moved to 500 stocks in 1957 there have been six other years that had 50 or more all-time highs and the next year was lower four times, with an average return the next year of only -1.5% those six times.

Chalk this up as a worry, yes, but let’s also put this in context.

The S&P 500 made a grand total of ONE new all-time high in 2022 and 2023. Looking at those other six years that had 50 or more all-time highs I found the two years before the big jump in new highs averaged another 34 all-time highs.

One other way to put it is the average number of new highs for any random three year period is 54. Which puts the 58 new all-time highs the past three years in perspective and what we’ve seen lately is perfectly normal.

Maybe I’m just a glass is half full type of guy, but the lack of new highs the two previous years is a big difference between now and those other years and another reason to think 2025 could be solid for the bulls and we’ll see a lot more new highs.

What About After a 20% Gain?
As you’ve probably heard a few times by now, stocks gained more than 20% for the second year in a row. Here’s something you might not have heard though, the returns the next year actually get better after a 20% gain.

That’s right, the average year gains 9.5% and is higher 72.0% of the time. This jumps to 10.6% and 81.0% after a 20% gain, suggesting better than average returns and the bull very well might have a little more up his sleeves this year. But taking this one step further shows that after back-to-back 20% gains the next year is actually up 20% on average and never lower. How about them apples?



Here’s the data for all the years after 20% gains. It is worth noting we’ve only seen back-to-back 20% gains four times, with three of those times taking place in the 1990s (and the other in the 1950s). Yes, that’s a small sample size, but I’d still rather know this than not know it.



The bottom line is history says not to be scared of 20% gains and the likelihood of 2025 seeing double digit gains (or more) is high.

What more good news? We are set to release our Market Outlook 2025 in exactly one week. Stay tuned and thanks for reading!

Santa Claus Rally Fails to Call But January Barometer Holds the Key

Santa was a no-show for the second year in a row. But all hope for 2025 is not lost. Defined in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) is the propensity for the S&P 500 to rally the last five trading days of December and the first two of January with an average gain of 1.3% since 1950. This indicator was discovered and first published by Yale Hirsch in the 1973 edition of the Almanac.

The lack of a rally can be a preliminary indicator of tough times to come. This was certainly the case in 2008 and 2000. A 4.0% decline in 2000 foreshadowed the bursting of the tech bubble and a 2.5% loss in 2008 preceded the second worst bear market in history. Down SCRs were followed by flat years in 1994, 2005 and 2015, and a mild bear that ended in February 2016.

Last year, in 2024, New Years jitters did not last throughout January and S&P 500 went on to log a second straight yearly gain in excess of 20%. Of the 16 down SCRs since 1950, 11 years have been up and 5 down, but the average gain is a tepid 6.1%. As Yale Hirsch’s now famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

With the Santa Claus Rally a no show we will be watching for a positive First Five Days (FFD) and January Barometer (JB), the second and third legs of our January Indicator Trifecta. If these seasonal indicators are negative and the market does not rally as it normally does during this time, we may shift to a less bullish posture – if not outright bearish.

With two more January indicators remaining, we will reserve final judgement until the end of January when the JB result is officially known. As long as the JB is positive the prospects for 2025 remain reasonably good.

Full analysis and January Trifecta scenarios here: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/Alert/20250103.aspx

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2024-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 1.10.25-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 1.10.25-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for January 10th, 2025
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1/12/25
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

StockBoarders! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (1/13-1/17) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (1/13) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 1.13.25 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

Monday 1.13.25 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 1.14.25 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 1.14.25 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 1.15.25 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF NEW YEAR'S DAY.)

Wednesday 1.15.25 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF NEW YEAR'S DAY.)

Thursday 1.16.25 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 1.16.25 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 1.17.25 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 1.17.25 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($JPM $TSM $C $UNH $WFC $BLK $GS $APLD $KBH $BAC $AEHR $MS $BK $SLB $USB $RF $JBHT #CVGW $PNC $FHN $INFY $MTB $OZK $SNV $TFC $IIIN $CNXC $FAST $WIT $HOMB $BSVN $RFIL $FUL $STT $CFG $INDB $WBS $KARO $CMTL $SIFY)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning January 13th, 2025 <-- click there to view!

 

Top of the morning StockBoarders! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are under an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, January the 13th, 2025!

 

Here are today's economic calendar events:

 

Here are today's analyst stock upgrades & downgrades:

 

Here are this morning's pre-market earnings results:

 

Morning Lineup - 1/13/25 - Bumbling and Stumbling
Mon, Jan 13, 2025

Global equities stumbled into the weekend on Friday, and they’re bumbling out of the gate to kick off the week. While Japan was closed, other Asian markets started off the week on a down note with the Hang Seng falling 1%, while India South Korea, and Australia all also saw at least 1% declines. Europe was open during much of Friday’s US sell-off, so it didn’t have as much to ‘catch up’ from this morning, but the STOXX 600 is still down close to 1% which is right in line with where US futures are trading this morning. The culprit behind the global weakness has primarily been interest rates as yields have been increasing worldwide. Add to that the relentless run in the dollar, and now oil prices moving up towards $80 per barrel, and it isn’t a good recipe for higher stock prices.

Large-cap tech was notably weak on Friday as it was the first day since September 11th, that the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) opened and traded the entire session below its 50-day moving average. It’s been less than a month, but QQQ has established a relatively well-defined trend of lower highs and lower lows.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, January 13th, 2025.

 

Here are the most anticipated earnings releases for the next 5 weeks out: