Stock Market Today: November 25th - 29th, 2024

Welcome to the trading week of November 25th!

Dow rises more than 400 points for record close, Wall Street posts weekly gain: Live updates



The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new record on Friday, capping off a winning week for stocks.

The blue-chip Dow gained 426.16 points, or 0.97%, to 44,296.51, a new all-time closing high and its third straight positive session. The S&P 500 added 0.35% to finish at 5,969.34 for its fifth winning day in a row.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to 19,003.65. Gains were restricted by slides of 3.2% and 1.7% in Nvidia and Alphabet, respectively.

The Dow ended the week about 2% higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each added about 1.7%. That marks a turn from last week, when Wall Street’s postelection rally stalled.

Friday’s moves marked a continuation of a trend where investors shift exposure from tech to names in more economically sensitive corners of the market. That can explain why the industrial and consumer discretionary sectors led the S&P 500 higher, while communication services was the worst performer.

While tech struggled, bitcoin neared the long-awaited milestone of $100,000. Small-cap stocks also showed strength this week, with the Russell 2000 climbing 1.8% in Friday’s session to finish the week up by roughly 4.5%.

“Investors are rotating out of the previous high flyers of large-cap communication services and technology and into other cyclical sectors of consumer discretionary, industrials, and financials, as well as mid- and small-cap stocks,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. “Drivers continue to be the traditional end-of-election-year rally, in which all sizes, styles, and sectors within the S&P 1500 rose in price.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:



Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:
(N/A.)

 

Russell 2000 on Verge of Breaking Out

It has been over three years since the Russell 2000 last closed at an all-time high. This sad streak could be coming to an end soon. Seasonally speaking, small caps are set up for their annual yearend rally into Q1, often referred to as the “January Effect,” where small caps outperform large caps in January. As we point out on pages 112 and 114 of the Almanac, most of the “January Effect’s” small cap outperformance takes place in the last half of December as tax-loss selling abates.

As you can see in the accompanying chart, the Russell 2000 has been tracking the pattern fairly well since August and it looks like the small fry may finally be on the verge of breaking out to new all-time highs. Small caps leapt higher in early November, then retreated a bit and are now surging higher now. This trend aligns well with the annual pattern above. But as illustrated in the chart, small caps can exhibit some choppy trading from late-October through mid-December and patience has generally been rewarded with opportunities presenting through mid-December.

Chinese Stocks in Free Fall
Fri, Nov 22, 2024

In the US, equities have staged a solid rally this month with most of the move occurring after the election. Elsewhere in the world, equities haven't exactly shared in the gains. Chinese stocks, using the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) as a proxy, surged throughout September and into early October as stimulus measures were announced. After a massive 42.7% gain from the end of August through the closing high on October 7th, MCHI reversed lower and was down 14.5% by Election Day. Headed into the election, MCHI actually stabilized somewhat, but post election it has taken another leg lower as it is now down 9% since then and 22.2% since the October high. As shown below, the ETF is also now in no-man's-land trading smack in the middle of its 200 and 50-DMAs with gaps to fill from the September post-stimulus run up.



Although MCHI is pulling back, it is at least still higher than it was prior to stimulus announcements back in September. The same cannot be said for some of the country's most prominent stocks. As shown below, Baidu (BIDU) and Alibaba (BABA) have now both round-tripped over the past couple of months. That also leaves them at interesting standpoints from a technical perspective. Starting with BIDU, the stock has been in a steady downtrend throughout the past year and this recent turn lower leaves it testing support at 52-week lows. For BABA, the long term trend is a bit more friendly with a series of higher lows throughout the year. However, BABA has also been on a ruthless stretch of declines including a daily loss in six of the last seven sessions. Whereas BIDU is testing support at 52-week lows, BABA is testing support at its 200-DMA.





Tesla (TSLA) on Top Since Trump's Election Victory
Fri, Nov 22, 2024

Earlier we provided a snapshot of asset class performance since Election Day using our key ETF matrix. Diving a little deeper, below is a look at the change in market cap across S&P 1500 sectors since Trump's victory on 11/5. As shown, the Financials sector has thus far been the biggest beneficiary with a collective increase in market cap of $608.4 billion across all of its stocks. Technology ranks second with an increase of $434.9 billion, followed by Consumer Discretionary at $335 billion. On the flip side, two sectors have seen a decline in market cap since Trump won. Real Estate is down very marginally at $2.3 billion, while Health Care has seen its market cap drop by a much more significant $167.9 billion.



Below is a look at the individual stocks that have seen the biggest jump in market cap since Election Day. Is it any surprise that Elon Musk's Tesla (TSLA) has seen by far the biggest jump at $283 billion? Behind Tesla is NVIDIA (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) with respective gains of $160 billion and $77 billion, however, their share prices are up less than 3%. These two names are simply so big that the smallest moves now result in massive swings in market cap. Rounding out the top five are JP Morgan (JPM) with an increase of $66 billion and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) at $58 billion.

In addition to these five big winners, other notables on the list include names like Netflix (NFLX), Walmart (WMT), Disney (DIS), Blackstone (BX), Costco (COST), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and Interactive Brokers (IBKR).



Below is a list of the biggest winners by percentage change since Election Day. The two best performers remain the two private prison stocks -- GEO Group (GEO) and CoreCivic (CXW). Other interesting names on the list of biggest post-Election winners include United Fire (UFCS), Grocery Outlet (GO) and Hertz (HTZ).



Asset Class/Key ETF Performance Since Election Day 2024
Fri, Nov 22, 2024

We're just under three weeks past Election Day 2024 and below is an updated look at the performance of various asset classes since then using our key ETF matrix.



While it may feel like the stock market has gone gangbusters since the close on 11/5, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up just over 3%, while the mega-cap Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is up even less at 2.5%.

Both growth and value ETFs are up similar amounts, while currency ETFs like FXB, FXE, and FXY are all down more than 2% as the dollar has rallied.

Looking at sectors, Financials (XLF) is up the most with a gain of 8.3% followed closely by Energy (XLE) at +8.04%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) ranks as the third best sector since 11/5 with a gain of 7.5%. On the downside, Health Care (XLV) is solidly in the red with a drop of 2.4%, and while it's not one of the eleven major sectors, the semis ETF (SMH) is also down 1.7%.

It has been quite the bloodbath in international stocks since Trump's victory on 11/5. Five of the major country ETFs are down more than 6%: China (MCHI), Hong Kong (EWH), France (EWQ), Italy (EWI), and Spain (EWP). Israel (EIS) is one of the few country ETFs that has gained along with Australia (EWA) and Canada (EWC).

We've seen some divergence between commodity ETFs since Election Day. The agriculture ETF (DBA) and natural gas (UNG) are both up solidly, but gold (GLD), silver (SLV), and oil (USO) are all in the red.

Why We Aren’t Permabulls


“Oh, those Carson guys are just permabulls.” Institutional CIO who has been dead wrong for years

Are we permabulls? We get this question sometimes and it is a great question. (A permabull is someone who remains bullish on markets no matter what is happening.)

On the surface we know that stocks usually go up, so maybe we should always lean bullishly? When it comes to my investments and retirement accounts, I do take this approach. I don’t care what the headlines are, I’m still going to put money into my 401k every two weeks. Then we look at a chart like this and it makes you think it might pay to have a glass half full approach to life.



It is no secret that the Carson Investment Research team took the road less travelled two years ago and went on record that a new bull market was starting and there wouldn’t be a recession. This call was absolutely hated by so many. I’ll never understand why, but most were hoping for a recession and bear market and for us to be one of the very few places to go against the herd of institutional investors (who all think the same) wasn’t well received.

We were mocked on social media, laughed at in public forums for saying 2023 was going to be a good year, shunned from going on TV for being ‘reckless’, and more. Here’s the thing. Yes, in bull markets with the current backdrop we are bulls. When we start to see signs of technical deterioration, stress in the credit markets, and signs the economy is indeed breaking down, we will change our tune. We’ve been overweight equities since December 2022 and we remain there today.

So no, we aren’t permabulls. But we are completely dedicated to helping clients reach their financial goals, even if that means going against what’s fashionable. And we definitely were not running around for two years telling people to be overweight bonds relative to stocks like so many of the big institutional shops have been.

Why do we remain bullish here and now? For starters, this bull market is actually quite young, at just over two years old. As you can see here, the average bull market lasts more than five years, suggesting this bull market might indeed last a lot longer than the bearish CIO would think.



Did you hear we had an election recently? Yeah, you probably heard, but what you might not have heard was that years one and two of a president who was re-elected tend to do quite well and better than under a new president. In fact, the four years under President Biden played out quite well to script. Year one does well, then year two (the midterm year) is weak, followed by a strong final two years. No, we don’t say you should invest simply on the presidential cycle, but we sure wouldn’t ignore it either.



What drives long-term stock gains? It is earnings and when you have an economy that continues to surprise to the upside, you tend to have solid earnings. For more of our thoughts on why the economy continues to look pretty good, be sure to read what Sonu Varghese, VP Global Macro Strategist, wrote in The Economic Outlook Looks Pretty Good – Part 1 and Part 2.

Turning to forward 12-month S&P 500 earnings we once again see new highs, all the way up to $268, up from $225 in early 2023. There is no holy grail when it comes to investing, but when we saw earnings estimates making hew highs, we took it as a big reason to be overweight equities and still do.



It doesn’t stop there though, as profit margins continue to trend higher and are at their highest levels this cycle. Profit margins expanding and earnings hitting all-time highs are great dual tailwinds for higher stock prices.



The S&P 500 is looking at potential back-to-back years with a gain of over 20% for the first time since the late 1990s, so we need to be aware it’ll likely be tough to see that impressive feat for a third year in a row. Then again, here’s a tweet I did on consecutive 20% years. If investors have 99 problems, up 20% two years in a row shouldn’t be one of them.



We continue to think low double-digit returns next year is possible (so better than your average year), but one thing to be aware of is the third year of a new bull market tends to be a catch-your-breath year. This makes sense, as years one and two of a new bull market are very strong, so some consolidation would be perfectly normal. The good news is once a bull market gets to year four, the returns once again are very strong.



When I started at Carson back in July 2022, I wanted to be part of one of the most honest and trustworthy research shops out there. We won’t always be right, but we sure won’t always be wrong is how I like to say it. The calls that our team has made the past few years have been about as good as anyone else out there. We are honored to help so many of our Partners grow and to shed some light on what it really happening, without following the crowd and saying the same thing as everyone else.

No we aren’t ‘just permabulls’ around here and trust me, we will change our tune when the data tells us to. Where am I a true permabull? I’m a permabull in believing that if you treat people the right way, work hard, stay humble, and surround yourself with good people that good things will happen.

Health Care Weightloss
Tue, Nov 19, 2024

We discussed the hard fall in Health Care sector stocks in today's Chart of the Day. While the drop has resulted in extreme underperformance versus the S&P 500, it has also resulted in the sector's weight in the S&P 500 falling dramatically. At the end of 2022, the sector's weight rose almost to 16%. At that time, it was the second-largest sector behind Tech, and relative to its history, it was one of the largest weights on record. The past couple of years have seen a dramatic weight loss that is now teetering on moving to a single-digit weighting. At 10.36%, the Health Care sector currently has its lowest weight since September 2000. Additionally, the 1.67 percentage point loss in weight over the past three months is one of the biggest declines on record.



Back at the recent highs in late 2022, Health Care was the second largest sector in the S&P 500. Today, it is only the fourth largest sector which is the lowest ranking it has had in more than a decade (2012). Of course, that smaller weight means that the Health Care sector won't have the same pull on the broader market that has been typical over the past couple of decades.

Feast On Small Caps Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally Trade

Thanksgiving kicks off a run of solid bullish seasonal patterns. November-January is the year’s best consecutive 3-month span (2025 STA p 149). Then there’s the January Effect (2025 STA p 112 & 114) of small caps outperforming large caps in January, which begins in mid-December.

And of course, the “Santa Claus Rally,” (2025 STA p 118) invented and named by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Almanac. Often confused with any Q4 rally, it is defined as the short, sweet rally that covers the last 5 trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year. Yale also coined the phrase: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

We have combined these seasonal occurrences into a single trade: Buy the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the 2nd trading day of the New Year. Since 1950, S&P 500 has been up 79.73% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to the 2nd trading day of the year with an average gain of 2.58%. Russell 2000 is up 77.78% of the time since 1979, average gain 3.34%.

Homebuilders Present vs. the Future
Mon, Nov 18, 2024

This morning the National Association of Home Builders published their latest update on home builder sentiment. The headline index rose to 46 versus an expected decline from 43 to 42. That three-point jump marks the largest one-month uptick since March but only leaves it in the middle of its range from the past couple of years.



Of the sub-indices, future sales stood out the most. The index surged 7 points month over month to reach the most elevated reading since April 2022. That is just above the historical median and suggests homebuilders are optimistic in spite of weaker readings in traffic and present sale indices.



As noted, present sales and traffic were not as rosy as future sales. As shown below, present sales were higher in November rising 2 points month-over-month to 49. However, that is only in the 29th percentile of historical readings, and more recently that is well within the range of readings from the past couple of years.



With present and future sales moving in the opposite direction, a massive divergence has formed between the two. As shown below, for most of the survey's history, future sales have tended to be higher than present sales for sustained periods albeit with some exceptions like the first couple of years of the pandemic. The last time present sales were stronger than future sales (negative readings in the chart below) was just five months ago, but there has been a massive turnaround since then. With November's reading, the spread is at the highest level (meaning sentiment towards future sales is stronger than present sales) since December 2006. Late 1991 was the only other time in which there was as wide of a divergence between the two.



Not only has there been a divergence between present and future sales, but the report also showed some divergence in sentiment based on geography. As shown below, homebuilder sentiment has perked up in the Northeast and the Midwest. Conversely, sentiment was lower month over month and closer to the low ends of recent ranges in the South and West.



As for homebuilder stocks, the long-term uptrend remains in place albeit the chart isn't as constructive as it once was. In late October, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) fell back below its 50-DMA for the first time since late spring and early summer when there was a successful test of support at the longer-term 200-DMA. While there hasn't been any sort of similar drawdown to support this go around, one week ago there was a failed attempt to move back above the 50-DMA. That leaves the group in no-man's-land sandwiched between the two moving averages.



Week before Thanksgiving DJIA Up 20 of 31, But Down 6 of last 7

DJIA has a fair track record over the last 31 years, rising 20 times the week before Thanksgiving with an average gain of 0.44% in all years. But the other major U.S. stock market benchmarks are not as strong and there has been more weakness the past seven years. Since 2017, DJIA has advanced just once during the week before Thanksgiving.

Over the last 31 years, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have the same record, up 18 times, with similar average gains of 0.20% and 0.23% respectively. Russell 2000 has been the weakest, up 16 times with an average gain of 0.08%. Last year, the week before Thanksgiving, enjoyed solid across-the-board gains as the market recovered from a correction.

Should weakness materialize next week, it may be a solid set up for the Thanksgiving trade of buying into weakness the week before Thanksgiving and selling into strength around the holiday and/or during typical November end-of-month strength.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2024-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 11.22.24-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 11.22.24-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for November 22nd, 2024
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 11/24/24
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

StockBoarders! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (11/25-11/29) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (11/25) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Tuesday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 11.25.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

Monday 11.25.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 11.26.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 11.26.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 11.27.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 11.27.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 11.28.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 11.28.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 11.29.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 11.29.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($DELL $CRWD $ANF $ZM $KSS $WDAY $BBY $BBWI $BLBD $ADSK $M $FLNC $HPQ $DKS $AMBA $URBN $DDD $BURL $A $WWD $HDL $IREN $API $SMTC $JWN $NTNX $HSAI $LESL $PFLT $GES $ENTA $ADI $PNNT $SUPV $BLRX $PD $FRO $NJR $ARWR $TEN $MANU $YY $NOAH $ICCM $SJM $CLGN $UCL $GOGL $TITN)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning November 25th, 2024 <-- click there to view!

 

Top of the morning StockBoarders! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are under an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, November the 25th, 2024!

 

Here are today's gappers up & down:

 

Here are today's economic calendar events:

 

Here are today's analyst stock upgrades & downgrades:

 

Here are this morning's pre-market earnings results:

 

Morning Lineup - 11/25/24 - Positive Start to a Short Week
Mon, Nov 25, 2024

Investors have a lot to be thankful for this year, and a holiday-shortened week after what has been an eventful year so far is no doubt one of them. The economic and earnings calendars are relatively light this week, but Tuesday will be a relatively busy week for earnings, while Wednesday will be a busier day for economic data as government agencies look to get the reports out ahead of what, for many, will be a long weekend.

In Asia, Japan and India were both up over 1% while Chinese stocks saw modest losses. In Europe, it’s been a mixed tone, with the STOXX 600 basically unchanged. Here in the US, equity futures are higher, and treasury yields are lower in part due to Scott Bessent's nomination as Treasury Secretary.

The last week of November has historically been positive for equities, and recent history hasn’t deviated from that trend. The S&P 500 has notched gains in the last week of this month in six of the previous seven years. The only down year was in 2021 when the S&P 500 fell over 2.6% as investors feared a resurgence of Covid from the Omicron wave and Fed Chair Powell sent a message to the market that the Fed was no longer not even thinking about thinking about raising interest rates. While the S&P 500 was near record highs heading into the week, both factors sent stocks plunging, and the S&P 500 fell 2.6% for its fifth worst last week of November in the post-WWII period and the worst since 1987. Outside of 2021, though, you have to go back to 2005 to find another year when the S&P 500 dropped over 1% in the last week of November.



Overall, the S&P 500’s median performance during the last week of November since 1945 has been a gain of 0.32% with positive returns 58.2% of the time which is nearly twice the average for all one-week periods since 1945. That’s the good news. The bad news is that in years when the S&P 500 has been up 20%+ YTD heading into the last week of November, the median gain has been more in line with the historical average (0.19%). When the S&P 500 was overbought (1+ standard deviation above its 50-DMA) heading into the last week of the month, the median performance was a decline of 0.20% with gains less than half of the time. Additionally, when the S&P 500 was up 20%+ YTD and overbought, the median performance during the last week was also a decline of 0.18% with gains half of the time.

None of these trends suggest that declines this week are likely, but for a week that has historically been considered one of the most positive weeks of the year, the setup this year is not necessarily as bullish.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, November 25th, 2024.