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Stock Market Today: September 16th - 20th, 2024

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Sep 2, 2024.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of September 16th!

    S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally Friday to cap best week in 2024: Live updates

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    Stocks rose on Friday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite posting their strongest week of 2024 ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

    The S&P 500 climbed 0.54% and closed at 5,626.02, less than 1% from its July all-time high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.65% to end at 17,683.98. Both indexes posted their fifth consecutive winning day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 297.01 points, or 0.72%, closing at 41,393.78.

    Utilities, communications services and industrials led the market higher on Friday, with each sector adding roughly 1%.

    Investors also continued to rake up shares of mega cap tech and semiconductor names, which helped drive this week’s rebound rally after tech’s recent underperformance. Powerhouse chipmakers Super Micro Computer and Arm Holdings added 3.4% and 5.9%, respectively. Alphabet advanced 1.8% and Uber jumped more than 6%.

    “Investors are on guard for further bouts of volatility, particularly given the expectations surrounding the Fed meeting,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. She noted that based on historical patterns, stocks typically have their roughest performance of the year during the second half of September.

    On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 rose 4%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 5.9% — the best week this year for both indexes. The Dow has advanced 2.6% in the period.

    Wall Street is now looking ahead toward the Fed’s policy meeting on Sept. 17-18, where the central bank is largely anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points. Currently, the Fed’s target rate is sitting at 5.25% to 5.5%.

    Economic data reflecting a moderation in inflation also seemed to support the case for a rate cut. The consumer price index in August came in at 2.5% on annualized basis, the lowest level since February 2021. Wholesale prices, meanwhile, rose 0.2% in August, coming in line with expectations.

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
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    S&P Sectors End of Week:
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    Major Indices End of Week:
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    Major Futures Markets End of Week:
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    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
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    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:
    (N/A.)
     
    #1 bigbear0083, Sep 2, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2024
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Nvidia & NikiLeaks Spark Surge In Stocks, Gold, & Crypto This Week
    FRIDAY, SEP 13, 2024 - 04:00 PM

    An event-full week (US CPI, US PPI, Presidential debate, ECB rate decision, and WSJ Fed whispers) left stocks, bonds, gold, crypto, and crude all higher in price, while the dollar was clubbed like a baby seal.

    Soft survey data continues to rebound higher (full of hope) while hard data - most notably labor market-related - has been significantly lagging expectations...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    ...which, along with comments from The Wall Street Journal's Fed-Whisperer (NikiLeaks) on discussions about a 50bps cut next week, sent rate-cut expectations higher on the week (despite plenty of chop around the hotter-than-expected core CPI print)...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    ...and shifted the market's expectations for a 50bps cut next week above 50%...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasury yields were all lower on the week, led by the short-end...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    ...but despite bonds being bid, US stocks snapped aggressively higher midweek (after NVDA CEO Jensen Huang said "demand was incredible" and the algos went wild) and extended that sudden squeeze into Friday (with Small Caps and Nasdaq leading). Nasdaq was up just under 6% this week - its best week since the Powell Pivot at the start of Nov 2023...

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    Small Caps soared 2.5% today as desk chatter was that we saw corporates scrambling to execute permitted buybacks before the blackout period begins (55% of SPX will be in a closed window by Monday)...

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    ...as "Most Shorted" stocks soared all week...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    ...and Mag7 stocks were up 5 days in a row (soaring to their best week since March 2023)...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    This week was not just AI stocks but the second-derivatives trades (like powering AI). Goldman's Power-Up-America basket soared to its best week in the last two years...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Stocks notably decoupled from bonds this week...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    ...as the Treasury curve (2s10s) steepened back into dis-inversion and its steepest since June 2022...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar was slammed lower after the WSJ comments yesterday (its sixth down week in the last seven weeks), but remains in a relatively narrow band for the last four weeks...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar's weakness helped lift gold, which surged to a new record high with its best week in five months...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Oil prices ended the week higher (despite today's pullback) but WTI remains below $70...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Which, along with the broad commodity space, is the only aspect of the markets that comes close to pricing in the 230bps of cuts priced into FF futures (a hard landing!!!)...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, bitcoin surged to its best week in two months, testing back up to $60,000 today...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    ...as perhaps the lagged impact of the surge in global liquidity (money supply) is about to send it to the moon...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold and stocks are already there... and don't forget - after Nasdaq's best week since the Powell Pivot, we are entering the market's worst two-week period of the year...

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    Will Powell let the market down?
     
    #2 bigbear0083, Sep 2, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2024
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    [​IMG]

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    The Inflation Fight Is Over but Fed Policy Remains Uncertain
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    We’ve consistently said for several months now that inflation was last year’s problem. The latest consumer price index (CPI) data confirms this. Headline CPI is up 2.5% year over year (y/y) through August, which is the slowest pace in three and half years. Here’s some perspective on how far we’ve come:

    • A year ago (August 2023), headline CPI was 3.7% y/y
    • Two years ago (August 2022), it was 8.3%
    • At the end of 2019, it was 2.3%
    The inflation fight is done. This is welcome news for American households and even the Federal Reserve (Fed) as it seals the deal for the Fed to embark on a series of interest rate cuts over the next few months.

    There’s actually good reason to believe that CPI data is overstating things. As you can see in the chart below, the big contributor to inflation is shelter, which is severely lagging more real-time private market data on rental inflation.

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    If you exclude shelter, inflation is running well below what we saw just before the pandemic hit, whether you look at short-term trends or the long-term trend. CPI excluding shelter is running at an annualized pace of 0.5% over the past three months, and it’s been in negative territory for the third month in a row. On a year-over-year basis, CPI ex shelter is up only 1.2%.

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    The problem created by lagging shelter inflation is magnified when you look at core inflation, which excludes food and energy. It’s the number the Fed typically likes to focus on. Core CPI is running at 3.2% year on year, with shelter contributing 2.2%-points of that. For perspective, at the end of 2019, core CPI was running at 2.3% year on year with shelter contributing 1.4%-points of that. In other words, the “excess” core inflation of about 0.9%-points we’re seeing now is coming almost entirely from the shelter component.

    We’ve tackled the issue with official shelter inflation data a lot over the last couple of years. Shelter makes up 43% of core CPI, and the data runs with significant lags to what we see in actual rental markets. Rents of primary residence account for 10%-points of that, while “owners’ equivalent rent” (OER) accounts for the other 33%-points. OER is the “implied rent” homeowners pay, and it’s based on market rents as opposed to home prices. Private market data, like those from Apartment List, have been telling us that rents have actually been declining for over a year now. The good news is that official data is turning toward what the private data is telling us, but it’s happening ever so slowly. We’re not going to see the official data show outright deflation eventually, but it’s likely to stabilize around where it was pre-pandemic—it’s just going to take a while.

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    All Eyes on the Fed, but the Onus Is on Chair Powell
    It looks like Fed members have gotten comfortable with the notion that the inflation fight is more or less over. The problem is that labor market trends are going in the wrong direction. I wrote about this last week. Note that the Fed has two mandates: low and stable inflation, along with maximum employment. At this point, they’ve mostly achieved the former, but the latter is clearly at risk.

    What is worrying is that several Fed members have talked about cutting rates in a “gradual,” or “careful,” or “prudent” manner, indicating they don’t see any urgency to get ahead of declining labor market trends. Meaning they are inclined to start with a 0.25%-point cut at their September meeting next week and proceed at that pace over the remainder of the year. The slightly hotter core CPI data from August, albeit on the back of lagging shelter inflation, further reduces the odds of them starting the rate cut cycle with a big 0.50%-point cut. But this also makes it even more likely that they find themselves further behind the curve in a few months and will have to play catch-up by going big later on, a rerun of when they waited too long to raise rates as inflation was picking up in late 2021/early 2022—but from the opposite side.

    A notable exception to the gradualist approach appears to be Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself. At his Jackson Hole speech about three weeks ago he made no mention of following a “careful” or “gradual” approach. Instead, he said they would not tolerate further cooling in the labor market. Since then, we got a slew of labor market data, including August payrolls, showing things are slowing down further. There’s a reasonable chance that Powell may buck the opinion of other Fed members and decide to “go big” with a 0.50%-point cut at their September meeting. That will also show intentionality that they do intend to support the labor market—and hence the economy, since incomes drive consumption.

    While the economy is in a reasonably healthy place today, that may not be the case 6-12 months from now if the Fed starts to fall further behind the curve. Safe to say we’re not in a recession now, nor is one imminent over the next few months, but the odds of one by mid-2025 is starting to increase. This raises the stakes for the Fed’s September meeting and all eyes will be on Chair Powell.

    Sentiment Goes According to Seasonality
    Thu, Sep 12, 2024

    The typical seasonal September slump for stocks has left the S&P 500 down 1.5% month-to-date. Regardless of the rebound in the past few sessions, the weak start to the month has put a dampener on investor sentiment. In the final two weeks of August, the percentage of respondents reporting as bullish to the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came in above 50%. Since peaking the week of August 22nd at 51.6%, bullish sentiment has now slid for 3 straight weeks and is down to 39.8%. That is the lowest level of bullish sentiment and the first sub-40% reading since the first week of June.

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    With the drop in bulls, bearish sentiment has been on the rise. Bears came in at 31% today which is the highest level in five weeks and right in line with the historical average for that reading since the start of the survey in 1987.

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    Bulls falling and bears rising would mean that the survey's bull-bear spread has pivoted lower. The spread fell from a reading above 20 last week down to 8.8. While that is a significant drop, bulls still outnumber bears as has been the case for the past 20 weeks. Through the history of the survey, there have only been 13 other streaks of 20+ weeks of positive bull-bear readings, the most recent of which ended this past April at 24 weeks.

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    September has historically been a rough month for equities from a seasonal perspective. As such, sentiment has also tended to be weak. The charts below show the average bull-bear spread reading by month for all years since 1987 and so far in 2024. Sentiment is usually strongest at the bookends of the year (January and February) and tends to fall in the late-Summer with September marking the annual low.

    This year has to some degree followed that pattern. Sentiment was strong in the first two months of the year and unusually carried through into March. Sentiment slumped in April but began to pick up through July before reversing lower in the past two months.

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    The AAII survey hasn't been the only measure of sentiment to moderate lately. This week's bull-bear spread in the Investors Intelligence survey similarly dropped with the weakest reading since last November. The NAAIM Exposure index was modestly higher but continues to show equity exposure was significantly higher a couple of weeks ago. All combined into our sentiment composite, sentiment favors bullishness, but to the weakest level in a month.

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    Like the AAII survey, although investor outlooks are not as rosy as they were previously, it has been an impressive streak of net bullish readings. Our sentiment composite has now come in with a positive reading for 20 straight weeks. That immediately follows a 24-week long streak that ended in April with only one week of bearish sentiment in between the two. Before that, there were only seven other streaks that lasted at least 20 weeks. In other words, it has been an impressively long stretch of bullish investor sentiment.

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    Highest and Lowest Country ETF Dividend Yields
    Wed, Sep 11, 2024

    US equities have outperformed the rest of the world for a long time now. Over the past decade, the US, proxied by the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), has returned 228% compared to a 48% total return for the rest of the world as measured by the MSCI All World Ex. US ETF (ACWX). On a relative basis, US outperformance has been nearly uninterrupted over this period.

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    Below is a look at the performance of the US versus the rest of the world since the current bull market for global equities began on 10/12/22. In this chart, we include the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), another All World Ex. US ETF (CWI), and the Invesco International Dividend Achievers ETF (PID) which holds international stocks with higher dividend yields.

    While the US (SPY) is up 58% on a total return basis during the current bull market, the rest of the world (CWI) is up 13.5 percentage points less at +44.5%. The international dividend stock ETF (PID) is up even less at just 38%.

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    Looking at the international dividend ETF (PID) over a longer time frame, over the last five years, it's up 20.6% in price and more than double that on a total return basis. So dividends re-invested have accounted for more than half of PID's total return since late 2019.

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    So which country ETFs available to US investors offer the highest and lowest dividend yields? Below is a list of as many country-specific stock market ETFs that we could find along with their yield over the past 12 months, their historical average yield, and their year-to-date total return. The list is sorted from highest 12-month dividend yield to lowest. (It's important to understand how ETF dividends and dividends of international equities are taxed based on whether they are qualified or non-qualified. In non-taxable accounts, investors do not have to worry about the tax rate on dividends received, but in taxable accounts, international dividends are usually considered non-qualified. You can read more about dividend taxes on ETFs here.)

    As shown at the bottom of the table, the average 12-month dividend yield of all country ETFs shown is 3.26%. That compares to SPY's 12-month dividend yield of just 1.24%. Currently, the US ranks near the very bottom of the list when it comes to dividend yields. There are a good chunk of country ETFs that currently yield more than the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes.

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    Volatility Anyone?
    Wed, Sep 11, 2024

    It’s anyone’s guess where the S&P 500 finishes the day. What we do know is that the S&P 500 once again found itself trading down more than 1% on the day this morning. Today’s move continues an emerging trend from the last two months where the market increasingly finds itself in a 1% hole early in the trading session. To illustrate, the chart below shows the 50-day moving average of the number of trading days when the S&P 500 was down at least 1% relative to the prior day's close at some point before noon easter. After dropping as low as zero in mid-July just as the S&P 500 was hitting record highs, the frequency of 1%+ declines in the morning has quickly shot up to eight. That's the highest level since April 2023 coming out of the stress in the regional banks.

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    From a longer-term perspective, the current frequency of 1%+ declines in the morning is nowhere near extreme levels. During the 2022 bear market, the moving average spiked as high as 22, and during Covid it exceeded 24. During both the Financial Crisis and the bursting of the dot-com bubble, there were periods where the S&P 500 was down at least 1% in the morning on over 60% of all trading days! Despite these periods of extreme readings, the long-term average number of days that the S&P 500 was down 1%+ in the morning over 50 days is much lower at just 6.2

    What is notable about the current period, however, is that up until a few days ago, the recent period (338 trading days) was the seventh longest on record of below-average readings in the number of 1%+ morning declines. It was also the longest since the 471 trading day streak ending in March 2018. With the yield curve uninverting, the Fed set to cut rates, and an election on the horizon, the relative calm of the last 16 months has faded like a summer fling.

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    Horrible Small Business Earnings
    Tue, Sep 10, 2024

    This morning's NFIB Small Business Optimism Index showed disappointing results. The index was expected to show small businesses had less optimism with the index forecasted to fall 0.1 points month over month down to 93.6. Instead, the decline was much more dramatic as it fell down to 91.2; erasing all of the summer gains. One factor likely at play that we have noted in the past is political sensitivities.

    Historically speaking, NFIB data has tended to hold a positive bias during Republican administrations and vice versa. Put differently, optimism rises when Republicans are in power or are expected to be voted in, and optimism falls when Democrats are in power or are expected to win an election. In reaction to last month's report, we discussed how the recent surge in optimism earlier this summer was concurrent with the rising odds of former President Trump winning back the presidency. This latest data, on the other hand, would capture that the Presidential race is looking tighter than it did previously, and optimism seems to have moved lower in turn.

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    Looking under the hood of the report, there wasn't much to like. Of the inputs to the Optimism Index, only two rose month over month: Plans to Make Capital Outlays and Job Openings as Hard to Fill. The latter of those is by far the strongest category of the report with the August reading in the 92nd percentile of all months. Outside of that, there are four inputs to the optimism index and another three non-input categories that now rank in the bottom decile of readings. Some of those like Actual Earnings Changes and Expectations for Higher Real Sales also fell significantly month over month with bottom decile monthly moves.

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    As noted above, one of the weaker inputs to optimism was actual earnings changes and other "actual" categories are similarly weak. In August, that index fell 7 points month over month. That is the largest decline in a single month since last October when it fell 8 points. More impressively, that drop results in the index falling below the spring 2020 lows for the worst reading since March 2010. Among other categories for observed (rather than expected) conditions, employment change reached a new near term low of -6. That is the weakest reading in this index in two years. As we showed in the Morning Lineup, combined with other labor market categories, the report is consistent with a further weakening labor market.

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    Circling back on the weak change to earnings, the report details a handful of reasons that small businesses are reporting lower earnings. As shown below, the most common response in August was increased costs; up 2 percentage points to 16%. The next most common reason was sales volumes which was unchanged sequentially at 13%.

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    While those responses would indicate that an uptick in inflation has been hurting the bottom line of small businesses, the report's inflation gauge was somewhat contradictory. There continues to be more companies reporting that prices are higher versus lower than they were three months ago. However, that higher prices index has been improving dramatically. The index dropped to a new low of 20 in August which is the lowest level since January 2021. While that is also still elevated ranking in the 81st percentile of all months on record, that is well below the peak from two and a half years ago and is consistent with decelerating inflation. Additionally, the share of businesses reporting inflation as their biggest problem ticked down modestly to 24% from 25% and is well below the highs near 35%.

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    Oracle (ORCL) Joins the Pack
    Mon, Sep 9, 2024

    When you think of the major cloud infrastructure providers, Amazon.com (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) are the first names that typically come to mind. Given that their market caps are all well into the trillions, it makes sense, but one name saying "don't forget about me" is Oracle (ORCL). If you compare the performance of the four stocks since the launch of ChatGPT, ORCL's 74.6% gain lands right in the middle of the pack, ahead of GOOGL and MSFT but trailing AMZN's gain of 82%.

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    This year, though, ORCL has been the clear leader. With a gain of over 35%, it has doubled AMZN's 15.2% move and more than quadrupled the gains of GOOGL and MSFT. What's most impressive about ORCL's performance is that it's still right near its highs of the year even as the other three stocks are in drawdowns of 12%-20%.

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    Making ORCL's performance even more impressive is that the company has reported weaker-than-expected sales in each of its last four earnings reports. Last September and December, those weaker-than-expected revenues were not met kindly by the market as the stock experienced one-day declines of 12.4% and 13.5% which were the two largest one-day earnings declines since at least 2001! Following its March and June reports, though, the company still reported weaker-than-expected sales, but each of those reports were followed by one-day gains of 13.3% and 11.8% - ranking as the third and fourth strongest one-day gains in reaction to earnings since at least 2001. While no investor ever wants to see a company report weaker-than-expected sales, they were able to look past that shortfall as the company reported a new cloud partnership with Google, 50%+ growth in its cloud infrastructure services unit, and a higher-than-expected backlog.

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    Even as shares of ORCL have kept pace with the three major cloud providers since the launch of ChatGPT and outperformed handily so far this year, from a valuation perspective, shares trade more in line with the market. At 22.6x estimated earnings for the current year, ORCL's multiple is slightly more than three turns higher than GOOGL, and well below the multiples of AMZN and MSFT. With a market cap of nearly $400 billion, ORCL is far from an under-the-radar company, but it still doesn't get the same attention as many of its peers. Its performance this year illustrates that the best returns in the market don't always come from the places everyone else is already looking.

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    #3 bigbear0083, Sep 2, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2024
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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2024-
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    S&P sectors for the past week-
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    #4 bigbear0083, Sep 2, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2024
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 9.13.24-
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    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices
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    Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 9.13.24-
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    #5 bigbear0083, Sep 2, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2024
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

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    #6 bigbear0083, Sep 2, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2024
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for September 13th, 2024
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9/15/24
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
     
    #7 bigbear0083, Sep 2, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2024
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================

    StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (9/16-9/20) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

    Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (9/16) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Tuesday ahead!

    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***


    Monday 9.16.24 Before Market Open:

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    Monday 9.16.24 After Market Close:

    (T.B.A.)

    Tuesday 9.17.24 Before Market Open:

    (T.B.A.)

    Tuesday 9.17.24 After Market Close:

    (T.B.A.)

    Wednesday 9.18.24 Before Market Open:

    (T.B.A.)

    Wednesday 9.18.24 After Market Close:

    (T.B.A.)

    Thursday 9.19.24 Before Market Open:

    (T.B.A.)

    Thursday 9.19.24 After Market Close:

    (T.B.A.)

    Friday 9.20.24 Before Market Open:

    (T.B.A.)

    Friday 9.20.24 After Market Close:

    (NONE.)
     
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    #10 bigbear0083, Sep 2, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2024
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  11. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    I got finished with the project early.
    Still taking vacation next week though.

    Not much news today except:
    Empire State Manufacturing Index @ 8:30
     
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  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Top of the morning StockBoarders! :coffee: Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are under an hour away from the US cash market open.

    GLTA on this Monday, September the 16th, 2024! :cool3:

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  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here are this morning's gappers up & down:

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  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Good Monday morning StockBoarders! :thumbsup:

    Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone has a great new trading week ahead! ;)
     
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  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Morning Lineup - 9/16/24 - What a Difference a Week Makes
    Mon, Sep 16, 2024

    Futures are mixed this morning with the Dow indicated to open higher, the S&P 500 trading slightly lower, and the Nasdaq trading a little deeper into negative territory. The weakness in the Nasdaq is mostly due to Apple (AAPL) which is down over 2% following reports that iPhone orders over the first weekend of sales have been weaker than expected. These reports usually have little more than a temporary effect, but on an otherwise quiet morning, it’s making its impact felt. The only economic report on the calendar today is Empire Manufacturing, which was just released and came in stronger than expected at +11.5 vs forecasts for a reading of -4.0. Believe it or not, that was the first positive reading of the year and the highest level since April 2022.

    Don’t let the quiet start to the week lull you into sleep, though. Tomorrow, we’ll get an important Retail Sales report, and then Wednesday morning we’ll get the August read on Housing Starts and Building Permits as an appetizer to the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM Eastern where the only question is whether Powell and Company will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points.

    The market mood heading into this past weekend and into the new week stands in stark contrast to where things stood a week ago. The snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer shows where major index ETFs stood last Friday and a week earlier. After Labor Day and the first week of September, all three index ETFs were below their 50-day moving averages and down between 3.2% and 5.6% as September looked to be living up to its reputation as the cruelest month. A week later, each of the four indices erased nearly all their declines from the prior week and reclaimed their 50-day moving averages.

    [​IMG]

    When the market experiences weekly reversals like the one seen over the last two weeks, the sectors that led on the way down also usually lead on the way up or vice versa. That wasn’t necessarily the case last week. While that trend applied to Technology (best last week and worst the week before) and Communication Services (third best last week, third worst week before) it didn’t to most other sectors. Take Energy; last week it was the only sector to finish lower for the week, and the week before, it performed worse than every other sector except for Technology. Going the other way, Real Estate was one of just two sectors to finish each of the last two weeks with gains.

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, September 16th, 2024.
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    #16 bigbear0083, Sep 16, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2024
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  17. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    Enjoy the vacation next week @OldFart , thing might settle down a little bit for the market after this week anyway after the FOMC :D
     
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    Futures on the fed funds rate, which measures the cost of unsecured overnight loans between banks, have priced in a nearly 60% chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, LSEG calculations showed.

    That was up from 45% last Friday and from 25% following the release of an in-line U.S. consumer price index report last week.

    US interest rate futures see higher odds of super-sized Fed move | Reuters

    It is not a great setup in my opinion and I might take some profit off the table before 2 PM EST on Wednesday if we have a good day tomorrow and a decent rally on Wednesday morning. It looks like 50/50 odds for either 25 bps or 50 bps this time around and usually it is better if the market almost for sure knows what the FED will do. We have a retail sales data tomorrow though, if it is way hotter/softer than expected then maybe we will have a better idea of what the FED will do on Wednesday :popcorn:
     
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  19. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    A lot of info coming out this morning :hmm:
    We'll see what happens starting at 8:00...
     
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  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Top of the morning StockBoarders! :coffee: Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour away from the US cash market open.

    GLTA on this Tuesday, September the 17th, 2024! :cool3:

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