Stock Market Today: September 23rd - 27th, 2024

Welcome to the trading week of September 23rd!

Dow rises to close at fresh record, posts winning week after big Fed rate cut: Live updates



The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain and closed at a record on Friday, capping a big rally for the week that came after the first major easing of interest rate policy by the Federal Reserve in four years.

The 30-stock Dow inched up 38.17 points, or 0.09%, for a new closing high of 42,063.36. The S&P 500 pulled back 0.19%, ending at 5,702.55, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.36% to end at 17,948.32. On Thursday, the Dow hit a record above 42,000, and the S&P 500 climbed above 5,700 for the first time.

The three major averages notched weekly gains. The S&P 500 rose 1.36%, posting its fifth positive week over the last six weeks. The index is up more than 19% in 2024. The Dow ended the week higher by 1.62%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 1.49%.

On Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by a supersized half-point, its first cut since 2020. In a delayed reaction, the market climbed higher on Thursday as investors crowded into tech names like Nvidia and shares set to benefit from lower rates like Home Depot.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, in the first comments by a member of the Fed since Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, said to CNBC Friday that inflation is coming down faster than he expected, causing him to be in favor of the half-point cut.

“Investors viewed the aggressive rate cut as positive catalyst,” said Nationwide chief of investment research Mark Hackett.

“The Fed was able to effectively convince investors that the sizable cut is a proactive measure to sustain economic momentum, rather than a reactive move to stabilize it. The strong market reaction indicates investors have confidence in the Fed and have a ‘glass half full’ mentality,” Hackett added.

FedEx dented sentiment a bit on Friday after the shipping behemoth cut its earnings outlook. Shares dropped more than 15% and competitor UPS shed 2.7% in sympathy.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:
(N/A.)

 

Gold, Oil, & Crypto Soar As Fed Slashes Rates With Stocks At Record Highs
FRIDAY, SEP 20, 2024 - 04:00 PM

"everything is awesome"... so awesome The Fed needed a crisis-like 50bps cut to keep it awesome!



Stocks are at record highs (no landing at all); home prices are at record highs (and rising fast); and US macro data has dramatically surprised to the upside since the last FOMC meeting...



Source: Bloomberg

...but bonds are 35bps lower in yield (recession)...



Source: Bloomberg

...so it makes perfect sense that The Fed would slash rates by a crisis-like 50bps.



All the majors were higher on the week, but faded gains today amid the biggest September OpEx ever. Small Caps outperformed its index peers on the week. Everything felt very technical this week as today's Quad Witch (biggest September OpEx ever) seemed to drag everything in equity land higher yesterday with selling pressure erupting today as the opening options expired and continuing to the lows of the day...



Goldman's trading desk notes that overall activity levels are surging (+33% vs. the trailing 2 weeks with market volumes down -11% vs the 10dma) with their floor tilting -12% better for sale, this ranks in the 97th %-ile over the last 1yr.

• HF are -10% better for sale with their short ratio at 53%. They are better seller in every sector ex-Fins. Supply is heaviest in Macro Prods, Tech and Cons Disc.
  
  
• LOs are now +17% better to buy after starting the session slightly better for sale. Demand very concentrated in Tech, followed by HCare, Fins & Energy. Supply is limited to Utes.

Most Shorted stocks were squeezed hard on Wednesday but since then the machines have not been able to ignite any momo...



Source: Bloomberg

The basket of Mag7 stocks face-ripped up to their prior record high but was unable to push through it...



Source: Bloomberg

Utes surged today on the 'Power Up AI' trade (sponsored by MSFT) but the Energy sector outperformed on the week, while Real Estate lagged bigly (sell the news on rate-cuts?)...



Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were mixed on the week with the short-end actually lower (admittedly only 1bps) while the long-end rose 9bps...



Source: Bloomberg

The last time yields rose after a 50bps rate cut was in October 2008 and things didn't end too well that time.

But there's no recession ahead according to stocks, despite the market pricing in massive rate-cuts...



The yield curve dramatically bear-steepened this week to its steepest since May 2022...



Source: Bloomberg

The upper-left part of the rates volatility surface, the area most sensitive to central bank policy rates, has been heavily offered over the past couple of sessions after the Federal Reserve appeared to rule out a continued course of half-point rate cuts and reflecting a more measured policy approach for the rest of this year and into next year.



Source: Bloomberg

Despite major volatility, the dollar index ended the week unchanged...



Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil prices rallied strongly this week off three-year lows as 'tank bottoms' loom at Cushing. This was oil's best week since Oct 2023.



Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin had a big week (best two weeks since July), pushing back above $64,000 to one-month highs...



Source: Bloomberg

This was the best week for ETH relative to BTC since May (when the ETH ETFs launched)...



Source: Bloomberg

Gold soared to new record highs today, above $2600 (with the best two weeks since April)...



Source: Bloomberg

Finally, one can't help but wonder if we are about see That 70s Show replay in CPI...



Source: Bloomberg

Is global liquidity about explode once again to enable that re-ignition of inflation?



Source: Bloomberg

...or how much do stocks have to fall before The Fed Put is triggered?

Bear in mind that stocks have NEVER been more expensive relative to the economy (total US market cap back up to 200% of GDP...



Source: Bloomberg

Buffett would be rolling in his grave if he were dead!

 

Utilities Reacting to Reactor News
Fri, Sep 20, 2024

Although the S&P 500 finished in the red on the day, there is one sector reaching fresh 52-week highs: Utilities. The Utes are one of only two sectors higher today (the other being Communication Services), and its leadership is by a wide margin. Whereas Communication Services is only up 0.17%, the Utilities sector is flying with a 2.58% gain.



That big gain is thanks to news that Constellation Energy (CEG) will sell power to Microsoft (MSFT) in order to power its data centers. To generate that power, CEG will be restarting one of its nuclear reactors at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania. As shown below, given the news, CEG is the top performer in the sector today with an impressive 21% gain. Vistra (VST) has also benefitted and is up 14.3%. Those two stocks are now top performers on the year with total returns of 79.35% for CEG and 142.2% for VST. Of course, the Utilities sector is often considered an income friendly area of the market, but the surges in the price of CEG and VST have dramatically lowered their yields below 1%. That compares to an average yield of over 3% for all members of the sector. The only other Utilities stock with a lower yield is PG&E (PCG) which recently reinstated its dividend after a few rough years dealing with the fallout of being to blame for wildfires in the back half of the 2010s.



As previously mentioned, Constellation Energy (CEG) is at the center of attention today. As shown below, the over 20% gain today erased all of the declines since the spring, leading to a fresh record high. Additionally, today's gain is the largest one on record since the stock's inception following a spinoff of Exelon (EXC) in 2021.



Vistra (VST) has likewise returned to new all time highs on today's surge, surpassing the previous record close from this past May. The 14.5% single day gain as of this writing is remarkable as there is only a single time that the stock rose by more, and that was on July 31st when it rose 14.8% as news of higher energy prices bolstered the Utilities sector.

Here’s Why Markets Liked What the Fed Did and Hit a New Record High


Stocks reacted in a fairly neutral way after the Federal Reserve’s historically significant decision to jumpstart the rate cutting cycle with a 0.5%-point cut. But the real follow-through came on the day after the Fed meeting, perhaps after everyone slept on it. The S&P 500 surged 1.7% to close at a new record high on Thursday, September 19 (the first since July 16). The index is now up over 20% for the year. But wait, wasn’t the equity market supposed to move lower, not higher, in response to a large cut, on the assumption that a recession was looming?

On top of that, Treasury yields for maturities over two years are now higher than they were relative to the day prior to the Fed meeting. If the Fed signaled a more dovish path for policy rates, why weren’t longer-term yields moving lower, not higher?



There’s No Puzzle: It’s About the Fed Supporting the Economy
I wrote yesterday that the key takeaway from the Fed meeting was that they are not willing to tolerate the unemployment rate moving much higher — their projections capped the unemployment rate at 4.4% (it’s currently at 4.2%). The Fed’s essentially putting a floor under the labor market.

Unlike in prior rate cutting cycles, the big rate cut wasn’t a “panic cut.” Safe to say we’re not in the middle of a recession, nor is one imminent over the next few months. Amongst other things, the August retail sales report showed that online sales grew at an annualized pace of 15% over the past three months. Layoffs are also relatively low. Notably, Fed Chair Powell said the time to support the labor market is when it’s strong, not when you begin to see layoffs. In other words, the large cut was about risk management, with the Fed looking to get ahead of deteriorating labor market data.

The good news is that the Fed has room to support the labor market because inflation has eased a lot. An underrated factor here is lower energy prices. Beyond headline inflation, higher energy prices can even feed into core inflation numbers that the Fed typically focuses on. For example, higher energy prices can raise restaurant prices and airfares. We’ve gotten a break there, with WTI oil prices pulling back by about 17% since early April.

All this is very positive for the economy. And if economic growth remains resilient, bond yields should not be moving lower. On the other hand, if investors didn’t believe the Fed and thought they were behind the curve, we’d likely have seen bond yields fall, as investors priced in a higher risk of recession. For now, investors appear to be taking the Fed’s word that they’re putting a floor under the labor market, and therefore the economy.

Equity markets have been reflecting this since last week, after a Wall Street Journal report published on September 12 suggested the Fed was considering a big cut. The massive rally on Thursday capped what was already happening. From September 11 through September 19, the S&P 500 rose 3%. But mid- and small-cap stocks, which are even more geared to economic growth, outperformed. The Russell mid cap index rose over 4% during this period, while the Russell 2000 small cap index rose over 7%. As you can see below, these still lag their large cap counterpart year to date, but we believe there’s potentially more follow-through to come, especially with the Fed backstopping the economy. Full disclosure: we’re overweight these areas of the equity market in our model portfolios. Economic growth is what you need for profit growth, and that’s what drives returns. The new record is not a “sugar high” by any means.



We also saw this story of stronger economic growth expectations playing out within large-cap sectors. Cyclical sectors, including energy, communications, industrials, consumer discretionary, materials, and financials all outperformed the broad index, whereas more defensive sectors like consumer staples underperformed.



All that said, keep in mind that we could yet see some volatility over the next several weeks. As my colleague, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, recently wrote, late September and October of an election year are a seasonally weak period for equities. But going forward, we have some strong tailwinds for markets (and the economy). If nothing else, momentum begets momentum. And we have a lot of that now.

Best and Worst Performers Since 8/5
Thu, Sep 19, 2024

The large-cap S&P 500 and Russell 1,000 are both now up more than 10% since the summer low made on August 5th. They're also trading back to new all-time highs today.

Within the Russell 1,000, the average stock in the index is up 10% as well, meaning breadth has been strong. This is different from what we saw in the first half of the year when the mega-caps pretty much drove all of the market's gains.

We've seen some pretty massive moves higher in individual stocks since August 5th. There are 137 stocks in the Russell 1,000 up more than 20% since then (just 32 trading days), and there are 21 stocks up more than 40%. Below is a list of those 40%+ gainers.

As shown, buy-now-pay-later stock Affirm (AFRM) is up the most since 8/5 with a gain of nearly 88%. App-maker AppLovin (APP) is up the second-most at +83.8%.

Language-learning app Duolingo (DUOL), online real estate search site Zillow (ZG), and fast-casual Mediterranean menu company Cava (CAVA) round out the top five with gains of more than 56%.

Other notables on the list of big winners recently include Palantir (PLTR) with a gain of 53%, Five Below (FIVE) at +45.4%, SharkNinja (SN) at 44.9%, and RH at 41.1%.



While more than 87% of stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up since 8/5, there are 123 stocks that are in the red, including the 26 listed below that are down more than 10%.

Trump Media (DJT) is the Russell 1,000 stock down the most since 8/5 with a drop of 44.7%. Wolfspeed (WOLF), elf Beauty (ELF), New Fortress (NFE), and Dollar General (DG) round out the list of the five biggest losers, and other notable names on the list include Dollar Tree (DLTR), Sirius (SIRI), Celsius (CELH), Moderna (MRNA), Walgreens Boots (WBA), Ally Financial (ALLY), and Birkenstock (BIRK).



Below is a look at the average performance of Russell 1,000 stocks since 8/5 broken out by sector. Four sectors have seen average gains in a tight range between 12.3-12.8%: Real Estate, Technology, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary. On the weaker side, the average Energy stock is up just 3.1% since 8/5.



Below is a look at the average year-over-year percentage change of Russell 1,000 stocks by sector. Over the last year (since 9/19/23), the average Russell 1,000 stock is up 23.8%, but stocks in the Financials sector have done by far the best with an average gain of 34.5%. Notably, the AI-heavy Technology sector ranks third behind Financials and Industrials. Energy stocks, on the other hand, are only up an average of 1.9% YoY.

Going Ex-Dividend
Thu, Sep 19, 2024

Just over a tenth of the stocks in the S&P 500 are going ex-dividend in the next two weeks, and below is a list of the stocks going ex that have dividend yields that are higher than the yield of the S&P 500 (~1.28%).

As a reminder, to capture a quarterly dividend payment, investors need to own shares as of the close on the day prior to the ex-dividend date. If the ex-dividend date is 9/20/24, for example, you'd need to own shares as of the close on 9/19/24 to capture the dividend.

Some of the highest yielding stocks going ex-dividend in the next two weeks include Eversource Energy (ES), Philip Morris International (PM), Franklin Resources (BEN), US Bancorp (USB), Host Hotels (HST), and Realty Income (O).

Some of the largest, most well-known stocks going ex-dividend in the next two weeks include the aforementioned Philip Morris International (PM), Medtronic (MDT), Mondelez (MDLZ), Deere (DE), Cisco (CSCO), and Comcast (CMCSA).



Doomsayers Have Their New Indicator: The Yield Curve Uninverts


The pandemic and post-pandemic environment has been a breeding ground of economic anomalies born out of deep disruptions and policy extremes that have echoed across the years. That doesn’t mean good economic analysis doesn’t hold true; it does mean that good analysis takes some extra work. You couldn’t just paint by numbers over the last several years. You had to think a little bit about how you’re counting things up and what the “true count” is given the unusual circumstances. My colleagues Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, have had a keen eye for the numbers that mattered over the last couple of years, cutting across the onslaught of doomsaying charts that treated the environment as “business as usual.”

Writing on the eve of the Fed’s first rate cut of the cycle, I thought I would take a quick look at the latest harbinger of doom making the rounds. The yield curve has uninverted. What does that mean? The 10-year Treasury yield is normally higher than the 2-year Treasury yield. Investors expect a higher yield for a bond whose maturity is further out. Since June 1976, the 10-year has been above the 2-year 83% of the time. When the 2-year yield moves above the 10-year, called yield curve inversion, it’s usually a sign that markets expect the Fed to get more aggressive, and sometimes, to a lesser extent, that the economy may weaken.

Much was made of the yield curve inverting back in July of 2022. But the bear market bottomed three months later and the expansion continued. In fact, real GDP grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% over the two years since July 2022, above the 2010-2019 average of 2.4% and the S&P 500 rose over 40% from July 31, 2022 to August 31, 2024. Much was made of the inversion reaching more than 1% for the first time since 1981 in June of 2023. Markets pressed higher and the expansion continued. By our measure the yield curve uninverted (assuming it stays that way) on Friday, September 6, 2024. (It had uninverted a little earlier but had inverted again.) What happens next?

Like inversion, uninversion (or reversion, or yield curve normalization) is a reflection of what investors expect the Fed to do. A curve that has uninverted means investors expect the Fed to lower interest rates. It could probably be a stronger sign of economic risk than inversion, but historically, the Fed’s been behind the curve and was playing catch up – economic data was already deteriorating by the time the Fed started lowering rates (e.g. 1990, 2001, 2007, 2020). In other words, you can’t paint by numbers.

Even with that, uninversion hasn’t meant a lot for stocks. We looked at the date the yield curve uninverted around the last six recessions (all the history we had). It’s a small sample, but at the very least it tells us that uninversion hasn’t spelled doom for markets. To the contrary, the one-year numbers historically are actually pretty good, up a median of 17%.



We can’t ignore the risks. Labor market trends have turned negative increasing the possibility of an economic downturn. However, we still think a Federal Reserve that is at least moderately aggressive about lowering currently restrictive rates can avoid falling behind the curve. How restrictive are we now? In 2019 a fed funds rate of just 2.5% was considered high enough to break a pretty good economy and the Fed had to make a mid-cycle adjustment. The fed funds rate is at 5.5% now, a meaningful hurdle for economic expansion, but the economy has actually held up quite well. The Fed’s current aggressive efforts to control inflation were needed, but with inflation under control and job gains slowing, highly restrictive rates can do unnecessary damage to the economy whether or not it causes a recession.

In the table above, stock gains were strongest despite uninversion in the early 80s. While we don’t think the current situation is completely analogous to the early 80s, there are some common factors. The current hiking cycle is the most aggressive since the early 80s. The motivation was also similar—the focus was on inflation, not necessarily an economy that was overheating. The 80s had their own market drivers, but we do think market resilience in response to an aggressive Fed has some parallels.

Each uninversion in the table above was in fact associated with a market drawdown of at least 15%, but that just shows how difficult it is to time drawdowns. And if you think, “Oh, I’ll buy near the bottom,” be aware that this would be very atypical investor behavior. As Ryan often likes to say, investing is the only place where everyone runs out of the store screaming when things go on sale.

If your concern isn’t markets, uninversion has done ok as a recession warning but it’s been highly variable. In the 1980s, uninversion actually came after the recession started, unlike the other four cases. If the current situation ends up being somewhat parallel, you could point to the 2022 bear market as the primary response to Fed rate hikes, which started back in March 2022.

In the other four cases, uninversion was a pretty good signal, but we don’t think we’re on the verge of a global pandemic, or a 100-year financial crisis, or even tech bubble valuation extremes. (We have had two bear markets in the last five years after all.) Uninversion likely just reflects the fact that the Fed is going to normalize interest rates after raising them to very restrictive levels last year. The bottom line is that uninversion may signal the need for more vigilance, but if you needed the yield curve to tell you that you just haven’t been paying attention. But it should not dictate your investment decisions.

Three Things To Know About Last Week


“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Vladimir Lenin



Last week was Carson’s Excell conference down in Orlando and it was a ton of fun, but a little exhausting as well. I’m glad it is over, but looking back it was such a fun and productive week for our Investment Research team.

From interviewing Tom Lee, Fundstrat’s Founder and CEO, in front of nearly 1,000 people on Facts vs Feelings 100th episode, to various breakouts from members of our team, to doing random Spaces with some of the big names guests in attendance, to just hanging out with our Carson Partners to learn more about what we can do to help them build their businesses and help their clients, it was a great week in the Sunshine State.

A funny thing happened while we were all together though, stocks soared! You can’t make this up, as the S&P 500 was up more than 4% for the best week since last November, but all five days were higher as well on the week. I’m calling this a perfect week and the bottom line is they tend to happen in bullish trends. I found 29 other times all five days of the week where higher, all five days were above the 200-day moving average, and on Friday it was less than 3% from an all-time high. In other words, a similar situation to right now. Well, a year later stocks were higher more than 86% of the time and up a median of 17.0%, not bad, not bad.



The second thing that happened last week that I think you should know about is stocks rebounded from their worst week of the year to have their best week of the year, talk about an Excell bounce! We have no clue if these will still be the best and worst weeks of the year at the end of the year, but we do know we saw a 4% or greater weekly decline, only to turn into a 4% or more weekly bounce the next week. Would you believe the past 11 times we saw that stocks were higher a year later by the tune of up 23.7% on average? Yep, it is true and it just happened. Going out further, I found 22 times this happened since 1950 and stocks were higher a year later 18 times (81.8%) and up an average of 16.4% and a median of 18.8%.



Lastly, on Wednesday last week, S&P 500 was down 1.6% about 90 minutes into trading over worries about inflation and the Debate the night before, but by the end of the day stocks were up more than 1%. This was a huge reversal and usually days like this led to higher prices in the future, in fact, the last time we saw anything like this was the exact lows of the bear market from 2022 back in October 2022. Up a median of more than 9% six months later and more than 16% a year later says it all, as this is another feather in the cap for the bulls.



Last week was a lot of fun for Carson, but also for the bulls. It might not always be this way, especially as we are entering one of the more seasonally weak times the last two weeks of September (below) and into October of an election year, but any near-term weakness will likely be fairly contained and these three stats I’ve mentioned here continue to support this bull market is alive and well.

September Quarterly Options Expiration Week Dodgy, Week After Dreadful



Since the S&P index futures began trading on April 21, 1982, stock options, index options as well as index futures all expire at the same time four times each year in March, June, September, and December. September’s quarterly option expiration week has been up 54.8% of the time for S&P 500 since 1982. DJIA and NASDAQ have slightly weaker track records with gains 52.4% of the time and 52.4% respectively.

However, the week has suffered several sizable losses. The worst loss followed the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001. In the last twenty-one years, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are tied for best record during September’s quarterly option expiration week, up thirteen times, but NASDAQ has been down the last six straight. Friday had been firm with all three indices advancing every year 2004 to 2011, but S&P 500 has been down 11 of the last 12 and NASDAQ has been down 10 of the last 12 since.

S&P 500 Down 27 of 34 Week After September Quarterly Options Expiration, Average Loss 1.06%

The week after September options expiration week, has a dreadful history of declines most notably since 1990. The week after September quarterly options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 34 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just four times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses. In 2022 DJIA and S&P 500 declined over 4% while NASDAQ fell 5.07%.

Full stats are the sea-of-red in the tables here. Average losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.09%, S&P 500 –1.06%, NASDAQ –1.06%. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer holdings and position for the fourth quarter.

A Summer Swoon in Trendy Tech


Returns in the stock prices of technology companies have cooled as of late, marking a sharp change from the experience of the previous year. Performance to date in the third quarter of 2024 is listed below for the so called ‘Magnificent 7,’ and the data show a significant slowdown compared to recent history. An equal weight portfolio of the selected stocks would have returned -0.04% thus far in the third quarter, according to FactSet data, much lower than the year leading into this quarter which showed a gain of +54.72%.



Investors are tasked with forecasting the future earnings potential of each company and appropriately discounting to today’s value. With a clear slowdown in stock returns, investors may be anticipating a slowdown in fundamental growth. It may serve investors well to revisit some of the headlines that affected the sector during this quarter.

The emergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in late 2022 has catalyzed much of the positive returns in technology stocks. However, investors got their first glimpse that growth is potentially limited during this quarter. During Alphabet’s quarterly earnings call, CEO Sundar Pichai noted that “the risk of underinvesting [in AI technology] is dramatically greater than the risk of overinvesting for us.” For those skeptical of the AI-fueled gains, it gave a reason to suspect that some of the largest tech companies are at least cognizant of potentially overinvesting and that future growth may not be as high as currently anticipated. It’s noteworthy to highlight that Nvidia stock declined roughly 25% from the day those comments were made by Mr. Pichai on July 23rd to an intraday low on August 5th.

For the investor believing AI is indeed catalyzing a generational technology refresh, there are reasons for optimism. Data from Google Trends, pictured below, shows that search activity for “ChatGPT” reached an all-time high just this week. ChatGPT, one of the first and most well-known Large Language Models (LLMs) continues to dazzle users with new features and propel its popularity to new highs, with a new model released just this past week. It serves as a stark reminder that innovation and rapid product releases are one of the hallmarks of investing in technology companies.



Future usage of LLMs, such as ChatGPT, may get another boost to growth with the release of the iPhone 16 and the associated integration with LLMs. DemandSage estimates that ChatGPT saw 200 million weekly active users in July 2024, an impressive feat for such a young company.1 But it may be only Act 1, to borrow a phrase. ChatGPT’s integration into the Apple ecosystem, such as becoming the preferred LLM on iPhones, may open the application to a market of over 1 billion active devices. A connection to these cutting-edge applications with less friction may mean a surge of new users could be just over the horizon.

While the third quarter of 2024 has provided technology investors with lackluster returns compared to recent history, investors are tasked with assessing the current growth landscape. Executives have become cognizant of overspending and overinvesting in such pricey technology. Yet, usage continues to grow and hit new highs among ChatGPT, due both to advancing capabilities and a broader set of distribution lines for users to gain access with. Investors may be well served to look at growing usage among new technologies and assess if these trends continue.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2024-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 9.20.24-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 9.20.24-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for September 20th, 2024
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9/22/24
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

StockBoarders! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (9/23-9/27) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (9/23) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Tuesday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 9.23.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

Monday 9.23.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 9.24.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 9.24.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 9.25.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 9.25.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 9.26.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 9.26.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 9.27.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 9.27.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($MU $COST $KBH $AZO $ACN $BB $ISPR $PRGS $CTAS $AIR $SNX $THO $KMX $JBL $CNXC $FUL $MTN $SFIX $JEF $RCAT $REE $WS $SCHL $SHLT)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning September 23rd, 2024 <-- click there to view!

 

Top of the morning StockBoarders! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are 2 hours into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, September the 23rd, 2024!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/23/24 - Listless Start to the Week
Mon, Sep 23, 2024

We’re heading into the home stretch of September, and with the S&P 500 up nearly 1% on the month, bulls couldn’t ask for much better especially when you consider how things looked on the 6th. This morning, there’s not a lot going on and futures are trading little changed with S&P 500 futures down slightly and the Nasdaq up slightly. Treasury yields aren’t showing much direction either with the short-end of the curve unchanged while the 10-year yield is up just two basis points. The only economic data on the calendar is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30 and flash September PMI readings for the Manufacturing and Services sectors at 9:45.

Getting back to September’s performance, last Thursday’s record closing high for the S&P 500 was notable not only for the fact that it was the first record closing high for the index since mid-July but also because it’s relatively uncommon for the S&P 500 to hit a record high in September. As shown in the chart below, since 1945, there have been fewer record highs in September (5.9%) than any other month. As shown in the chart below, the frequency of record highs tends to drift lower throughout the year with a ‘blip’ in July where just over 10% of all record highs have been recorded. November, however, stands out for having the highest frequency of highs at 11.8%, or twice the rate of September.



So, does a new record closing high in September bode well for the rest of the year? The chart below shows the S&P 500’s historical Q4 performance since 1945, and the blue bars indicate years when there was a record high in September. In the 21 prior years when there was a record high in September, the median rest-of-year performance was +4.7% with gains just over 90% of the time. That median gain is nothing to sneeze at, but it’s slightly less than the median for all years since 1945 (5.3%) although not quite as consistent to the upside (80%).

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, September 23rd, 2024.

 

Top of the morning StockBoarders! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are 2 hours into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, September the 24th, 2024!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/24/24 - China Pulls Out a Lot of Stops
Tue, Sep 24, 2024

Futures in the US are looking at modest gains this morning ahead of Case Shiller housing numbers at 9 AM and Consumer Confidence at 10 but the big news overnight came out of China where the PBoC announced several stimulus measures designed to boost the economy and the stock market. You have to check out the commentary section of today's report for a full in-depth recap (you won't find a better one). While the positive response by the equity market to the stimulus measures is more than warranted given the stops pulled overnight and could have some follow-through in the short term, we're not quite convinced that "all" the necessary stops were pulled to make this the seminal event for a turnaround in the long-languishing Chinese equity market and economy

As mentioned, China’s overnight stimulus measures powered the Shanghai Composite to a rally of 4.15% for its best one-day gain since July 6th, 2020. As impressive as the gain was, it barely got the index above its 200-day moving average and only back to levels it traded at in late August. Since its recent high in May, the Shanghai Composite is still down 10%. You have to start somewhere, but Chinese stocks still have a way to go.



Looking at a longer-term chart, Chinese stocks have had some big bouts of volatility where they more than doubled in just a couple of years and then gave back all of those gains just as fast. What also stands out is how volatility in the country has subsided. Over the last five years, there have been just two one-day gains of 4%+ while in the five before that there were 14. Combining those two most recent five-year periods, there have been 16 one-day gains of 4% in the last ten years which is only slightly more than half as many as there were in the ten years before that (31)!

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, September 24th, 2024.

 

I’m largely MIA from the markets for the next couple of weeks but I still try to check up on things every now and again whenever I can.

It’s interesting to me how the markets haven’t been following the historical norms for this time of the year this year.



Historically speaking the last weeks of September have seen the most volatile stretch for the market for the full year.

But it’s been anything but volatile this year lol. I suppose we can thank the FED after their jumbo rate cut last week.

I guess I timed this market break perfectly because it’s been really quiet out there for the most part. Not really a whole lot going on right now. Pretty boring if I’m being honest.

Seems like things could remain status quo to end the month absent something completely outta left field.

Earnings don’t really kick back up until another few weeks..

Hope you guys have all been doing well!

BTW, @stock1234, just want to make sure that you’re still able to access this site from your PC? There was admittedly some site changes over this past weekend.

 

Top of the morning StockBoarders! Happy Hump Day to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are 2 hours into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, September the 25th, 2024!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/25/24 - Gold Glitters
Wed, Sep 25, 2024

It's a quiet morning in the markets so far as US equity futures are flat to modestly lower while US treasuries are modestly higher as they've steadily risen since the Fed cut rates last week. The only economic report remaining on the calendar this morning is New Home Sales, but weekly mortgage applications were released earlier today, and while overall applications were up 11% for the week, nearly all of it was related to refinancing activity which was up 20% compared to a gain of just 1% for purchase applications.

While 10-year yields seemingly rising every day since the Fed cut rates last week, gold is on pace for its sixth straight day of gains and its fifth straight record closing high. Gold surged earlier in the year before trading in a sideways range from April through July. Still, as summer wound down and the current easing cycle became more of a certainty, investors have been piling into the world’s oldest inflation hedge.



Looking at gold from a longer-term perspective, all-time highs in the price of gold have been relatively rare. Since 1976, it has closed at a record high on just 2% of all trading days, and they were generally concentrated into three periods. The first was in the late 1970s to early 1980. Then gold went another quarter century with no record highs. It wasn’t until the financial crisis and the Fed instituted its zero-interest rate policy that gold broke out above its 1980 peak, and those new highs continued until late 2011. During Covid, gold briefly hit another all-time high but traded in a sideways range again through the end of 2023. This year, though, the pace of new highs has been coming in heavy with 36 – or about an average of once a week. Put another way, with 36 new closing highs this year, 14% of all the record closing highs in the price of gold have occurred this year.



Of the 36 record closing highs in the price of gold this year, six have occurred this September (through 9/24), and that has helped to move September into second place for the month with the largest number of new closing all-time highs. That’s nearly the opposite of the S&P 500 where September has been the month with the fewest record closing highs. The only month with more is August, but with just four trading days left this month, August’s lead is safe for this year.